InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[mschere]

Question..Are all your numbers being utilized as a One Time event (2002-2004)..or has your DETAILED analysis provided for recurring 2G revenue for 2005 through 2006? TIA



Let's take this analysis a step further - let's add some "odds".

First, I place the odds that IDCC gets "something" at 80%. Should IDCC get nothing, I expect a quick trip to $8.

Now, let's use bulldzr's scenarios and add odds although I am going to change the price ranges to reflect my best guesses:

$100M w/ no 3G: $19-21 (this will be viewed as neutral)
odds 25% (we're adding 2 bucks per share in cash)

$200M w/ no 3G (likely imo): $23-25
odds 50% (we're adding ~4 bucks per share in cash plus some hysteria factor)

$400M (as some believe) w/ no 3G: $28-$32
odds 10%

$200M with 3G: $32-40
odds 15%

Now, we can estimate a fair value for this thing based on the odds...

I come up with 21.92 so it looks like a buy to me, but I'd probably stick with 20 strike calls.