Let's speculate for a moment if you care to participate in this, because the reality is there are some fantastic minds on this board that do help a lot of people, and a lot of us would like to break away from the legal jargon and talk more in terms of compensation. I am man enough to not portray myself as this great expert, and am not to proud to ask for opinions. I have done my DD like everyone else but am not in the same stratosphere mentally as several on here when it comes to this case. Nevertheless, I feel like that doesn't make you less of an investor, so with that being said, what I would like to kick off in a debate for those of you who are pretty knowledgeable is WHAT ARE SOME POTENTIAL OUTCOMES FOR COMMONS?
And let's assume for a moment that this discussion is based on a positive outcome for commons, meaning we DONT HAVE TO DISCUSS AND LIST the worst case scenarios in which we all know exist. I will throw out some opinions of what some on here have already said and the reasons why, and feel free to add any I haven't covered, your opinions on what I have listed and what you think possibilities are, or any new potential outcomes that aren't listed. BUT MAINLY ELABORATE ON SCENARIOS. Also, I totally get that many will say it's better to own Preferreds, but since this is the commons board, I think it would be nice to get some scenarios out there that pertain to COMMONS. I certainly would love to hear all opinions and have a thinktank, extreme as many will be and regardless of what some will think are dead on or impossible. So please ELABORATE AWAY. I think this will be beneficial to many.
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES (ALL MY OR OTHERS IMO) THAT HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED ON HERE THE MOST:
1) THAT COMMONS WILL RECEIVE A MONETARY PAYOUT
The big argument here between the two camps on this board if you will, are that the YES CAMP says we are getting 2x or 3x an $8 offer that existed years ago. Others on the extreme scream out $30-$70 because the EC quoted a $30B number. Some say a dollar, some say a few.
The NO CAMP says this is not humanly possible because the numbers don't add up to that, and won't and can't in a BK court.
One not really talked about question I have however is what about the combo that both camps are right, but the market starts going crazy sensing an opportunity for commons to go up to a lot thinking that lawsuits or going after JPIG and FDIC in DC. Under that theory, how plausable is it for the commons to go up to $1,2,3,4,5, etc even if the numbers that we do know don't logically support it?
2) THAT COMMONS WILL RECEIVE NO COMPENSATION BUT THE NEW COMPANY
In this case, some questions are:
1) How many shares would each current common share be? Would it be a 1:1 ratio and the new co have 1.7B outstanding shares, or would it be more realistic to expect a split of 5:1 or 10:1?
2) What is the potential for the new company and the time frame it takes to get there? Some say this could hold the most value. Do you think that means dollars or tens of dollars?
3) Following on #2, if it is a newCo, what will the dynamics be, will there be a company come in to buy it to take advantage of the NOLS, etc?
4) What is the impact that the HFs would have on this. If they get their claims dismissed, is it beneficial for them to get on board with the new company and try to boost it as high as possible to recover $, which in turns benefits everyone, or do they try to napalm it?
3) THAT COMMONS RECEIVE A COMBO OF BOTH CASH AND THE NEW COMPANY
All the pros and cons are pretty much covered in #1 and #2.
Would love to hear any and all feedback to get a legitimate discussion going on potential outcomes, think this board needs to look into the positive, thats why we are all here, and at the end of the day, everyone deserves it, especially the ones who have been f'd the most and been here since the beginning of this atrocity.
AI
