IRIS catalyst: mgmt. should publish sales projections
It would be an immediate catalyst for investor sentiment if IRIS's management were to publish some sales targets for the short-term and the medium-term (e.g., 12 to 18 months).
Based on the fact that the immunoassay might be priced between $1300 to $2500 per assay, an annual sales targets in the range of $500,000,000 to $700,000,000 may be quite plausible. Simple marketing and math is what is needed here, along with a good sales campaign.
Does $500,000,000 to $700,000,000 as an annual sales target sound like a realistic medium-term number, especially considering FDA has approved their immunoassay and 217,000 new prostate cancer cases occur every year, with over 30,000 dying per year?
Insurance companies who don't want to pay for chemo when it is not necessary would be very likely to reimburse providers for an effective immunoassay test so each patient's treatment can be optimized. A success rate of 78 percent for predicting cases that will spread versus 93 percent for cases that will not spread should be music to doctor's and insurance company's ears.
IRIS has a laboratory already in-place to perform immunoassay tests and immunoassays are relatively easy to scale up to production levels, so with good marketing to doctors and insurance companies, this test could and should be able to reach about half of the patient population over the next 12 to 18 months. Long term there will be over 200,000 new patients to test every year plus a percentage of previous patients that might be appropriate to retest at certain intervals.
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