Eni S.p.A. (E)

[OilStockReport]

Time to stay clear of E?

Eni (NYSE: E ) -- avoid it
I’m not purposely trying to pick on Europe, but a basket of macroeconomic and political problems could derail Eni for longer than just the next few quarters.

As the largest oil producer in Italy, Eni has been struggling with political problems in Libya for most of the year. Prior to the power struggle between Muammar Gaddafi and rebel forces, Eni was averaging 280,000 barrels of oil production per day. In addition, 12% of all natural gas used in Italy comes from Libya. Even with the political crisis shifting in favor of rebel forces and the end in sight, it will take upward of 18 months before Eni’s operations are fully back online.

Even more concerning are the macroeconomic worries swirling around Europe regarding the sovereign debt crisis. In what could be a self-fulfilling prophecy, wide-stretching austerity packages enacted by several European countries (including Italy) could push the region into a deep recession. While oil will always remain in demand, companies already weakened by external factors, like Eni, could be in line for a significant drop-off in earnings and revenue. My advice would be not to let Eni’s 5.6% dividend cloud your better judgment and instead to heed the company’s warning that production is going to fall short of previous estimates.