Alea,
thanks. I think Wave is a cerebral investment and that is part of the appeal. I think it is also the reason it has been quite maddening for investors. The abstract nature of Wave’s role in a complex business has made it difficult to discern facts from supposition.
From that perspective, seeing through otherwise complex issues to determine probable outcomes suits my nature quite well. The way I would summarize Wave in a way that suits my background would be as follows. Wave's has uniquely positioned itself as a leading supplier of software services to an emerging new security standard. Wave's primary risks are two-fold: 1.) the standard does not gain traction 2.) Competitors emerge and trump.
1 is somewhat out of Wave's control as it requires a continued commitment from Wave's partners. However to the contrary of this risk, Wave's partners appear as committed as ever to this emerging standard. Will the better solutions win? There are many reasons they should, but better concepts have failed.
2 is mostly in Wave's control. Management’s ability to position the company as the current leading provider of management services is certainly evident. However, Wave needs to be crisp with its delivery, evolve and in certain cases inflect based on continuing developments. Wave's largest customer gives an indication Wave was able to deliver a positive customer experience. Evolving, changing, etc has been at the core of Wave's strengths, so we seem to be in relatively good hands in this regard.
I consider Steven a wildcard.
Wave’s upside is positively fascinating. Given the abstract concepts of Wave, when if/it engages, the ascent should be rapid. If Wave was simple to understand, considering the possible upside, the commitment from the titans of tech and Wave's unique position, Wave's value would be more consistent with its potential. Buyers are currently meeting sellers at $2.11 so I guess that is fair value for now.
It has been interesting and will continue to be…
AI
