T/A ETF AND INDEX

[northam43]

Pokersam - Yes, if your prediction actually comes true, it will be a one in a million call and I would consider you a great and masterful forecaster of the SPX.

I don't disagree that the market will eventually go down to as low as 221. If the SPX makes a new record high above 1576.09, a new major BEAR could retrace as much as 86%, taking the SPX as low as 221 depending on the high. The last major Bear was a decline of 58%.

I believe the max decline during this bear will be around 36%, which would be around the 870 level. Bear markets when the SPX has not made a new record high have lasted between 3 to 6 months, with retracements ranging from the low 19.9% to the high of 33.5%.

As for your long term illustration, it is very deceptive in the manner in which you maintain it. I believe an accountant would probably refer to it as cooking the books. Now if you take your long term illustration and label the I, II, III, IV & C with the price and date for those points, and then without changing them if your predictions came even close I would be impressed.

Back on Sunday, November 04, 2007 11:35:13 AM Post # of 26264
"I think we have made an historical top. I don't see anything but a decline into the abyss. S&P 770 in Nov. 2010.
I understand the impulse to call one more rally before hitting the top of this bull market. The last 5 years have conditioned everyone to expect it. Every time a top has been called there has been yet another rally. I just don't see it this time around.
The count of this 5 year rise , wave B, has been a perfect ABC correction off the Oct 2002 low. We went up 5 to (A) and down to (B) then five with a 3rd wave extention up to B (C).
We will now complete the correction of the bull ending in March 2000 by dropping to C in Nov. 2010."

We hit the low of 667 in March 2009, by looking at your illustration, that's not how you said it would play out according to the post above. Basically all you are doing is updating your illustration with the highs and lows as they occur.

So the question is, on your illustration, what will be the price and date for I?