GOOG is overprice even for future EPS.
Well I'm not trying to bash but i will warn you guys. This looks to me like 90-ies dot com. Cramer was saying 450$ LOL...whatever.
VectorVest Stock Analysis of Google Inc as of 6/3/2005
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Google Inc from VectorVest. The ticker symbol for Google Inc is GOOG. GOOG is traded on the NASDAQ - (xO) and options are available for this stock
Analysis Summary
GOOG is overvalued compared to its Price of $280.26 per share, has somewhat above average safety, and is currently rated a Buy.
In-Depth Analysis
Business: Google Inc, (GOOG) provides a web based search engine through its Google.com website. The Company offers a wide range of search options, including web, image, groups, directory, and news searches.
Price: GOOG closed on 6/3/2005 at $280.26 per share
Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. GOOG has a current Value of $214.02 per share. Therefore, it is overvalued compared to its Price of $280.26 per share. Value is computed from forecasted earnings per share, forecasted earnings growth, profitability, interest, and inflation rates. Value increases when earnings, earnings growth rate and profitability increase, and when interest and inflation rates decrease. VectorVest advocates the purchase of undervalued stocks. At some point in time, a stock's Price and Value always will converge.
RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. GOOG has an RV of 1.50, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. This indicator is far superior to a simple comparison of Price and Value because it is computed from an analysis of projected price appreciation three years out, AAA Corporate Bond Rates, and risk. RV solves the riddle of whether it is preferable to buy High growth, High P/E stocks, or Low growth, Low P/E stocks. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RV ratings above 1.00.
RS (Relative Safety): RS is an indicator of risk. GOOG has an RS rating of 1.13, which is good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RS is computed from an analysis of the consistency and predictability of a company's financial performance, debt to equity ratio, sales volume, business longevity, price volatility and other factors. A stock with an RS rating greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average stock in the VectorVest database. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks of companies with consistent, predictable financial performance.
RT (Relative Timing): RT is a fast, smart, accurate indicator of a stock's price trend. GOOG has a Relative Timing rating of 1.67, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. RT is computed from an analysis of the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price movements over one day, one week, one quarter and one year time periods. Once a stock's price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue in that trend for the short-term. If a trend dissipates, RT will gravitate toward 1.00. RT will explode from bottoms, dive from tops, and reflect changes in price momentum. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks with RT ratings above 1.00.
VST (VST-Vector): VST is the master indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. GOOG has a VST rating of 1.46, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. VST is computed from the square root of a weighted sum of the squares of RV, RS, and RT. Stocks with the highest VST ratings have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the stocks to own for above average, long-term capital appreciation. VectorVest advocates the purchase of safe, undervalued stocks rising in price.
CI (Comfort Index): CI is an indicator which reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines. GOOG has a CI rating of 1.72, which is excellent on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. CI is quite different from RS in that it is based solely upon a stock's long-term price history. VectorVest advocates the purchase of high CI stocks.
GRT (Earnings Growth Rate): GRT reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent per year. GOOG has a forecasted Earnings Growth Rate of 37.00%, which VectorVest considers to be excellent. GRT is computed from historical, current and forecasted earnings data. It is updated each week for every stock in the VectorVest database. GRT often foretells a stock's future price trend. If a stock's GRT trend is upward, the stock's price will likely rise. If GRT is trending downward, the stock's Price will probably fall. VectorVest favors the purchase of stocks whose GRT is rising and is greater than the sum of current inflation and interest rates, (8.60%).
Recommendation (REC): VectorVest gives a Buy, Sell, Hold recommendation on every stock, every day. GOOG has a Buy recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks rising in price. They also help investors avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks falling in price. VectorVest recommends that investors buy high VST-Vector, Buy-rated stocks in rising markets.
Stop (Stop-Price): Stop is an indicator of when to sell a long position or cover a short position. GOOG has a Stop of $228.23 per share. This is $52.03 below GOOG's current closing Price. A stock's Stop is computed from a 13 week moving average of its closing prices, and is fine-tuned according to the stock's fundamentals. High RV, high RS stocks have lower Stops, and low RV, low RS stocks have higher Stops. In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a 'B' or 'H' recommendation if its Price is above its Stop and an 'S' recommendation if its Price is below its Stop.
EPS (Earnings per Share): EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. GOOG has a forecasted EPS of $5.69 per share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): P/E is a popular measure of stock valuation which shows the dollars required to buy one dollar of earnings. GOOG has a P/E of 49.25. This ratio may be deemed to be high or low depending upon your frame of reference. The average P/E of all the stocks in the VectorVest database is 28.05. P/E is computed daily using the formula: P/E = Price/EPS.
EY (Earnings Yield): EY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. EY is related to P/E via the formula, EY = 100 / (P/E), and may be used in place of P/E as a measure of valuation. EY has the advantages that it is always determinate and can reflect negative earnings. GOOG has an EY of 2.03 percent. This is below the current average of 3.55% for all the stocks in the VectorVest database. EY equals 100 x (EPS/Price).
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): GPE is another popular measure of stock valuation. It compares earnings growth rate to P/E ratio. GOOG has a GPE rating of 0.76. High growth stocks are believed to be able to justify high P/E ratios. A stock is commonly considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00 and overvalued when GPE is below 1.00. Unfortunately, this rule of thumb does not take into account the effect of interest rates on P/E ratios. The operative GPE ratio of 1.00 is valid when and only when interest rates equal 10%. With long-term interest rates currently at 5.10%, the operative GPE ratio is 0.26. Therefore, GOOG may be considered to be undervalued.
DIV (Dividend): VectorVest reports annual, regular, cash dividends as indicated by the most recent payments. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., are not generally included in DIV. GOOG does not pay a dividend.
DY (Dividend Yield): DY reflects earnings per share as a percent of Price. GOOG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Yield rating. . DY equals 100 x (DIV/Price). It is useful to compare DY with EY. If DY is not significantly lower than EY, the dividend payment may be in jeopardy.
DS (Dividend Safety): DS is an indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. GOOG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Safety rating . Stocks with DS values above 75 typically have RS values well above 1.00 and EY levels that are much higher than DY.
DG (Dividend Growth Rate): Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's financial performance. It also provides some insight into the board's outlook on the company's ability to increase earnings. GOOG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a Dividend Growth rating .
YSG (YSG-Vector): YSG is an indicator which combines DIV, DY and DG into a single value, and allows direct comparison of all dividend-paying stocks in the database. GOOG does not pay a dividend, so it does not have a YSG rating . Stocks with the highest YSG values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
Open: GOOG opened trading at a price of $286.79 per share on 6/3/2005.
High: GOOG traded at a High price of $289.30 per share on 6/3/2005.
Low: GOOG traded at a Low price of $277.41 per share on 6/3/2005
Close: GOOG closed trading at price $280.26 per share on 6/3/2005. (Close is also called Price in the VectorVest system)
Range: Range reflects the difference between the High and Low prices for the day. GOOG traded with a range of $11.89 per share on 6/3/2005.
$Change: GOOG closed down 7.64 from the prior day's closing Price.
%PRC: GOOG's Price changed -2.65% from the prior day's closing price.
Volume: GOOG traded 18,768,100 shares on 6/3/2005.
AvgVol: AvgVol is the 50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest. GOOG has an AvgVol of 11,583,100 shares traded per day.
%Vol: %Vol reflects the percent change in today's trading volume as compared to the AvgVol. %Vol equals ((Volume - AvgVol) / AvgVol ) * 100. GOOG had a %Vol of 62.03% on 6/3/2005
Sales: GOOG has annual sales of $3,794,000,000
Sales Growth: Sales Growth is the Sales Growth Rate in percent over the last 12 months. GOOG has a Sales Growth of 92.00% per year. This is excellent. Sales Growth is updated each week for every stock. It is often useful to compare Sales Growth to Earnings Growth to gain an insight into a company's operations.
Sales Per Share (SPS): GOOG has annual sales of $14.21 per share. SPS can be used as a measure of valuation when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S): GOOG has a P/S of 19.72. This ratio is also used as a measure of valuation. Here, too, it is useful when comparing stocks within an Industry Group.
Shares: GOOG has 266,000,000 shares of stock outstanding.
Market Capitalization: GOOG has a Market Capitalization of $74,807,000,000. Market Capitalization is calculated by multiplying price times shares outstanding.
Industry Group: GOOG has been assigned to the Internet (Svc Provider) Industry Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
Business Sector: GOOG has been assigned to the Internet Business Sector. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 200 Industry Groups and 40 Business Sectors.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy Low risk, High reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough High Relative Value, High Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve.
