Tom:
I echo the appreciation for all you do to help others.
I have a couple questions, in an effort to understand, and in the context of your comment (sentiment) regarding the lack of cash deployment opportunities.
There was a bottom in mid 03 (and a second slightly higher one a couple months later) and another in 05 that do not reflect buys. Why were these not (other than in hindsight) buying opportunities? I understand (I think) that the literal answer to "why not" is that the buy target price was not hit, but it seems like if the SAFE buy level had been narrower that these both would have produced buying opportunities -- especially given the desire to be a bit more fully invested and given that there were two buys in 04, one of which appears to be roughly equal to the bottom in 05, and both of which are greater than the bottom in 03.
Would I be correct (or at least not incorrect) in thinking that when AIMing sector funds or broader market ETFs that the buy side SAFE should/could be smaller (producing more buys on smaller dips) on the assumption that entire sector or market segments are far less likely to significantly decline as substantially as the risk that any individual stock would do so? I understand that such a scenario could also get one deeply underwater in situations such as the NASDAQ 60%+ decline from 5000+ to sub 2000, but think that such events are once in many decade (if not lifetime) occurrences and could at least partially be offset by SAFE adjustment based on macro considerations. Thinking this through, and perhaps even answering my own question, could it be that macro related adjustments to SAFE would insert the kind of non automatic timing decisions that fixed SAFE amounts are designed to already account for? In this same context, it seems that one's subjective willingness to accept risk (and perhaps the availability of excess, additional, or new cash) has to be factored into the SAFE settings with a greater acceptance of risk resulting in smaller buy side SAFE limits and a lesser acceptance of risk resulting in larger SAFE buy side limits.
I also understand (again, I think) that part of the answer may depend on the individual sector, and particularly with respect to traditionally cyclical sectors, but I am just trying to think this through and understand it.
Next, is the cash decline in early 04 around the time of two sells caused by a non portfolio event? If not, then I don't understand how cash could decline at that time especially given the two sells that also occurred around that time.
Finally, and I suspect that you have been asked this a hundred times, and I seem to recall an answer somewhere, but not off the top of my head, what program produces the charts?
Troy
Those who shoot from the hip usually end up just shooting themselves.
Plan the grub and grub the plan.
Where is the party tonight? Who is bringng the drinks?
