If management could block and tackle
and we could sign Nokia, LG, Ericsson, Motorola and get Apple renewed at a decent rate, then this company would be well worth triple digits, and that's why I've invested so heavily. Even with what I consider to be mediocre execution, the fundamentals supported a price that provided a good return for me and was still undervalued IMO. Since management considers the licensing department best in class based on the achievements to date, I don't see them achieving what I consider best in class licensing performance (QCOM) soon.
IF IDCC gets a favorable CAFC decision (reversed and remanded), IF the ITC then does find infringment and issues a ban and IF IDCC is able to use that leverage to get a good deal with Nokia for past infringment and future use (because whatever we get, no matter how we allocate the moneys received, other licensees will divide the total amount by total units to come up with the true rate), then IDCC would have a strong case against any other holdout and would be able to sign. That's a lot of IFs, and these same and similar IFs that have been holding this company back for over a decade. So while your story is the one I fell in love with last century, IF there is an offer above our all time high, it will be accepted (subject to other bids).
This has been going on too long and I, for one, am quite ready to close out this investment. If we do get bought out, I will be somewhere between happy to thrilled beyond belief. If IDCC gets bought out, I will not consider myself a genius. I invested in this company based on their patents in the high growth telecommunications sector. My expectation was that they would be able to license the IP, generate huge revenues with almost no variable costs, seeing profits rise with the increase in the market. If IDCC gets bought out, it won't be because of their ability to monetize patents, I will have gotten lucky because some companies with a lot of money find they need the patents and are willing to buy them. As I like to say, it's better to be lucky than good.
