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Sunday, July 24, 2011 2:44:34 AM
http://wirelessledger.com/cam08139d01.pdf pages 9 and 10
I am going to give you a raw number of $4.5 billion dollars for 4G/LTE after cash taxes that will come to the acquirer of IDCC. Even though MPartners uses a discount rate of 25% b/c of lack of clarity of adoption on 4G/LTE they say they would drop that to 8.6% as things become clearer which is a significant drop and whose to say it couldn't drop further given much more clarity.
So my point for this analysis is to just add up the raw numbers because there will be factors that will impact it to the positive as well.
So if you very simply add up the after taxes cash on the Royalties to 2022 it comes out to roughly $4.5 billion dollars.
Now again of course I am not applying any discount rate but then again I'm not assumming a 100% market share or a greater than 1% royalty(nor is MPartners).
This doesn't include any money derived from 2G/3G which will still bring in revenue, along with compression technology, and M to M.
So just the raw numbers alone from MPartners without a discount rate applied of course is a massive number for 4G/LTE.
Another way to look at this and is generally speaking and taking info from various sources IDCC seems to have about a 4x greater portfolio than Nortel for LTE. And just using a rough estimate like MPartners did of a simple average of 750M paid for the Nortel 4G/LTE tranche then IDCCs is worth $3 Billion without (4x Nortel's) considering the fact they are more up to date, more global, higher quality, and more relevant. We even haven't factored in 3G which is going to double in size in 4 years. And it would be roughly another double if Nokia/LG get signed. How many more billions is that...
So with a market cap of about $3.1 billion now and being very conservative the 4G/LTE portfolio has been factored in to the market cap only based on the simple back of the envelope calculation.
There is no bidding frenzy, patent bubble, winner take all factored into this...very compelling.
JM2C
XM
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