Mr Cooper Group Inc (COOP)

[remmy]

Chiron, I agree with your analysis but not percentages.

In May, I would have. But after JMW didn't rubber stamp POR 6, that gave us clues to her thinking. If she was going to get tired and wanted the case over, that was the time to approve it. But she didn't. Idealistic after 2 yrs but tired after 2.5? Highly doubt it.

The real % are not 50-49-1 but 50-0-50. Either the thing gets rubber stamped as is (prefs and commons get nada) or it gets sent back. If it gets sent back, the prefs & commons will get something. I don't see such a minor adjustment to the waterfall that prefs get something while commons get nothing as likely.

But that does not mean holders of commons have a 50-50 chance of making money from here. While that's a good ratio long term, this thing will bob and weave between now and then. Sorry, not willing to share my near term price predictions. But the chances of a nice pop or two before emergence are much higher than 50-50. That is, if you're not afraid to step out and back in once or twice.