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Re: GLENO34 post# 1585

Tuesday, 07/19/2011 3:11:20 PM

Tuesday, July 19, 2011 3:11:20 PM

Post# of 1822
GLENO34 There is no right answer. It ia a matter of odds and probabilities. Has the trend changed to up? List your evidence.
Will the trend continue down? List your evidence.
If you end up with a 50-50 chance either way then you stay on the sidelines.
Then each person needs to decide on his risk tolerance. If the odds are only 60-40 the trend down will continue the risk is high. If the odds are 80-20 the trend down will continue the risk is not so high. So you decide you will only place a bet when the odds are in your favor by a certain margin. That way you know the limit of your risk and all you have to do is win more often than not.
Now all you need is a way to calculate the odds. heh heh

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