Weby,
Would I be satisfied with 10% of a 60 billion dollar market? Dunno. GM has, what, 23% of the US auto market? I sure don't want to be them. Lots more variables than market share.
I just downloaded the TCG 1.2 command list to see how formidably complex it would be to write TCG apps. Answer: it isn't. There are only about 100 commands, give or take. I program in an API which has at least double that and frankly it's easy--and I'm about the worst programmer I know. I'd say it would take a bright computer science student who knows his or her way around dot net about a weekend to write their first trivial TCG app provided they kept the bong hits down to about two an hour. A seriously productive dot net programmer could turn around TCG apps very quickly indeed. Big, big, big mistake to think that just because Wave helped develop the spec they've got some kind of unassailable competitive advantage. All the heavy lifting has already been done.