The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

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USDA Raises Corn-Export-to-China Forecast Fourfold

[For the fiscal year beginning 9/1/11, USDA now forecasts corn exports to China of 2Mt, up from the prior forecast of 0.5Mt. (The estimate for the current FY is 1.5Mt.) See chart in #msg-65057403.]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303678704576442310233192504.html

›JULY 12, 2011, 5:57 P.M. ET
By TOM POLANSEK

The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its estimates for corn exports to China fourfold, another nod to the country's rising demand in a market under strain.

In addition, the amount of the grain used to make ethanol is expected to eclipse its use in animal feed in the U.S. for the first time ever.

China is now forecast to import 2 million metric tons of U.S. corn in the next marketing year, which begins on Sept. 1, compared to the previous projection of 500,000 tons.

Corn prices breached $7 a bushel in intraday trading before paring some gains. Nonethless, futures ended higher for the fourth straight day, with the most actively traded contract, for December delivery, closing 4% higher at $6.58 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The thinly traded July contract settled 2.3% higher at $6.97 a bushel.

Analysts and traders largely anticipated the revision in Tuesday's monthly crop report because the USDA last week disclosed that China bought 540,000 tons for delivery in 2011-2012. Not only was the deal bigger than the USDA's full-year estimates, but it was the largest single purchase in recent memory.

Traders also point to China as the likely buyer behind hundreds of thousands of tons that the USDA lists as going to "unknown destinations."

"The increase in Chinese imports is likely lagging what is really going to happen," said Joel Karlin, analyst for Western Milling, a producer of animal feed in California.

The USDA left its estimates for export to China in the current crop year, which ends Aug. 31, unchanged at 1.5 million metric tons.

The agency upgraded its forecast for global corn consumption by 5.9 million to 877.61 million tons, citing increased needs for animal feed in China as well as burgeoning corn demand from ethanol producers in the U.S., the world's biggest corn grower.

This year, 5.05 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production compared with 5 billion for feed. Not only will ethanol plants' corn needs outpace those of livestock producers for the first time ever this marketing year, the trend will continue next year, according to the USDA.

The ethanol industry is now expected to consume 5.15 billion bushels next year, a hike of 2% from previous estimates.

On the supply side, the USDA raised projections for the upcoming harvest and end-of-season stockpiles, but less than analysts were expected. For the fall harvest, forecasters raised corn output projections by 270 million bushels from last month to 13.47 billion bushels. The government pegged supplies as of Aug. 31, 2012, at 870 million bushels, up from a June estimate of 695 million but below expectations for 1 billion bushels.‹