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The Anatomy of a Lightsquared Smear Campaign - (How to convince people that a start-up will lead to Armageddon?)

**This is an opinion piece and not like many of the typical DD pieces I do. I have watched the Lightsquared story for the last year and a half, and have seen the pieces fall in place, both with regards to the company and it's opponents. This is my take.

DISASTER!!

Planes are crashing, ambulances can't make it to your dying mother, crops are destroyed, the woman on your GPS tells you to turn right into a lake, and the economy plummets. Yes, only weeks after Armageddon was supposed to arrive according to Harold Camping and crew, you would think that fears of the end times would fade away. Not so fast, according to some business and industry big wigs. And, if you think the end times would be brought about by some other worldly forces, you'd be sorely mistaken. Apparently, where so many others failed over the years in stoking the end times, one start-up Lightsquared might succeed. The little engine that could. Lest you think this is all just wide eyed imagination, take note of the year they expect to start full scale service, 2012. Coincidence? Or a harbinger of doom?

I know this all sounds like a fantasy, and yes I'm guilty of overdramatizing, but if one read the news feed of Lightsquared you would think you had just entered Wall Street's version of "Days of our Lives". It's about as dramatic and juicy of a story as one can find. Before you judge me for my facetiousness, just take a peak at this sampling of recent news articles and blog entries about Lightsquared, the company in question. Ask yourself am I really over-dramatizing what is being alluded to by various media outlets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-01/deere-says-falcone-s-lightsquared-to-cause-massive-interference-.html
http://www.gpsworld.com/survey/lightsquared-its-worse-you-think-11646
http://gisforum.org/2011/04/gps-threatened-with-widespread-interference/
http://urgentcomm.com/networks_and_systems/commentary/lightsquared-money-vs-interference-20110601/
http://www.amerisurv.com/content/view/8715/
http://www.pobonline.com/Articles/Industry_News/BNP_GUID_9-5-2006_A_10000000000001056213
http://www.aviationdynamix.com/?page_id=36
http://www.techeye.net/mobile/lightsquareds-wireless-broadband-could-kill-gps#ixzz1O8ytyxTy

And there are dozens and dozens of more articles like this out there. Here are just a few choice tidbits, quotes and kernels of wisdom from a few of these articles:

“There are major economic consequences,” said Deere, the world’s largest maker of farm equipment. “Deere customers in agriculture, construction, and other applications will lose high accuracy navigation in and near areas served by LightSquared.”

“The potential impact of GPS interference is so vast, it’s hard to get your head around,” said Jim Kirkland, vice president and general counsel of Trimble Navigation Ltd., which makes GPS systems. “Think 40,000 GPS dead spots covering millions of square miles in cities and towns throughout the U.S.”

With GPS interference, a pilot “may go off course and not even realize it,” said Chris Dancy, a spokesman for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.

Manufacturers have warned that if the network sends signals that are too strong it could jam existing navigation systems and bring down aircraft.

LightSquared’s network could also undermine the Federal Aviation Administration’s multi-billion-dollar program to upgrade the nation’s air-traffic control system, which is based on World War II-era radar technology.

Many 911 systems also use GPS to help locate people. Disruptions could delay responses to emergencies, said Harlin McEwen, an official with the International Association of Chiefs of Police.

“Our military is heavily reliant on an uninterrupted GPS capability to do their jobs. The risk to our forces of the widespread denial of GPS was too great and required action. I am glad that my amendment ensuring that the Department of Defense’s concerns are addressed before LightSquared moves ahead passed overwhelming in the House today,” said Turner.

In January 2011, the FCC granted a conditional waiver to a single commercial communications company, called LightSquared, to build tens of thousands of ground stations that may cause widespread interference to neighboring GPS signals. The Commander of Air Force Space Command, General William Shelton, told Turner in March 2011 that, based on analysis he had seen to-date, “that virtually every GPS receiver out there would be affected.”

Turner further stated, “It is unacceptable for our armed forces to be put at greater risk or made less effective as a result of LightSquared’s operations. Congress and the Defense Department must have assurances from the FCC and this Administration that it will fully resolve the harmful interference issue prior to granting LightSquared final authorization to provide service. Our troops are depending on our government, and the FCC, to do the right thing.”

The message: Be afraid, be very afraid. The fear is truly palpable. And for me at least, along with an environment of palpable fear it never hurts to employ sneaking suspicion. Contrarian at it's core. The truth is we have now hit an environment of hysteria with this story, where media outlets have thrown off their objective hats off and jumped full on into the assumption that Lightsquared may, in the worse case scenario, lead to your death. The hook, the line and the sinker.


SO WHAT IS THE SNEAKING SUSPICION?

No one questions that there are issues that need to be worked out with regards to the interference issue, but even before we get all the facts from the working group report, the venom and fear being spewed around is truly remarkable. It's not like it's being switched on tomorrow. It brings me to two questions for all rational people out there.

(1) Does anyone realistically think either Lightsquared as a company or the government would allow a system to be developed would cause plane crashes, causes agricultural machinery to go haywire, or keeps emergency vehicle from finding their destination. Have we all lost our minds? Not only would that be political suicide for those who supported it, but it would be company suicide for Lightsquared. That company wouldn't last a day.

(3) Do people really think that companies would be jumping into bed with a company that is going to lead us down the road to the Apocalypse? Despite all these deathly warnings, Lightsquared continues to sign up partners like Best Buy, Cricket Wireless, and Leap Wireless. It also reported to be close to potential deals with Sprint and AT&T.


IF THERE IS NO ARMAGEDDON, THEN WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON HERE?

The anatomy of a smear

I am not one for conspiracy theory, but I'm also enough of a realist to recognize that when big-time players are involved and alot of money is at stake, people will look for strong-arm tactics and behind the scenes influence to turn the tide in their favor. While I don't have matter-of-fact evidence that this is happening with Lightsquared, I do have my suspicions. Either way, if I was someone who was against Lightsquared this is how I would attempt to sow the seeds of their demise.

I title this playbook, "How to destroy an idea, tarnish a company's reputation and lead a congressional insurrection against said company". Like a page from Sun Tzu, if indeed someone has been employing this strategy, they certainly must be chuckling and smiling now. Frankly, they deserve a raise, this is lobbying and strategizing at it's finest.


FIRST SALVO


- Create Civil Unrest.

Plant seeds of discontent among hedge fund investors (backers of Lightsquared). Hope the plan will unravel by taking it straight to Phil Falcone's pocketbook.


- Bring the Government Heat.

If he still doesn't budge, plant the seeds of wrongdoing and push for a federal investigation of Falcone.

**If that fails to stop company development or FCC support and first satellite is successfully launched turn to the second salvo.



SECOND SALVO


-Turn to the public to help you.

Create pure fear and panic among ordinary people that their lives are at stake.


-Stoke the fires and spread the fear.

Focus on the viral campaign elements of the story, make sure news outlets and blogs pick story up by using words like "disastrous" and "emergency."

** While you probably didn't expect that the second salvo would make things go your way, it both gives the company a bad name and helps set the stage for the third salvo.



THIRD SALVO


- Lobby Congress

Put your high powered lobbying campaign to work using the public unease and get congressman from all sides to join the fear parade and push through congressional legislation to further your cause.


- Create a political scandal

If necessary, use those political elements opposed to government most vehemently (Tea Party) to further calls of wrongdoing by the FCC and political appointees. Insinuating and planting ideas of "pay for play" with partisan crowd, certainly is something that will work to your advantage. Same approach as putting heat on Falcone, but through a different vehicle.

**Hopefully, by the third salvo you have gotten your way, because you are starting to run out of tricks in the bag. If this doesn't allow you to get your way, then fourth and final salvo.



FOURTH SALVO


- The nuclear option? TBD


So, in the end, has there really been a smear campaign? The sequence of events that have almost sidetracked the project, and what feels like a strategically timed roll-out of attacks and/or accusations against the company and its backers since early 2010 is interesting. It does lead at least me to wonder. Of course, it could all just be a coincidence, but with so much at stake, it makes it more difficult to believe in coincidences. I do think it is certainly possible that while everyone's eye and criticism is painted exclusively on Lightsquared at the moment, the real wrongdoing or scandal may in fact be with the myriad of players that may be conspiring behind the scenes against it.


WHAT IS THE REAL STORY OF LIGHTSQUARED

Well, I am by no means pro-Lightsquared as a company per se, but I am a fan of what their approach could mean for the everyday American consumer. There has been very little doubt or dissension among experts that a wholesale model approach to wireless would lead to greater availability and affordability for consumers. It would also most likely lead to a great era of innovation and competition within the industry.

The fact is if the elements of the wireless, GPS and other industries would stop throwing a hissy fit and get down and dirty to find a solution to the problem, and share the costs associated with such a solution it would benefit most Americans. It might dent their padded pockets and profits, but it certainly could help add dollars to the pockets of ordinary Americans at the time we need it the most. Even if the added competition only saved Americans $10 or $20 a month on their wireless bills. That's still $10 or $20 a month that people could either save or spend.

Either way, the real story of Lightsquared, the pros and cons should be discussed in an atmopshere of debate and facts, not paranoia and more paranoia. What are the solutions? How much will a solution cost? Who will pay for it? What kind of compromise can be reached? We won't know many answers, until the full testing report is released in a little over a week. But, if we brush this company aside, or see this company fail based on a strong lobbying effort and one sided debate, it would be truly unfortunate and a loss for both ordinary Americans and wireless innovation.


WHAT LIGHTSQUARED SHOULD BE DOING?

Lightsquared has been way behind the curve on defending their position and communicating what is really going on here. Of course, you can't blame them as they are only beginning to make friends and partners and they are fighting big industry players who are much more skilled in this game. Their position I believe is easily defendable it they focus on two main key points.

(1) We didn't start this mess.

Years ago the FCC informed GPS providers that they would need to implement improved technology to prevent their receivers from looking into adjacent spectrum. This has not fully happened, leading to the receivers looking into Lightsquared's wireless spectrum.

(2) The Lightsquared Stimulus.

Their success will lead to a new world of wireless in the US and make broadband available to the millions who don't have access or can't afford it.

The fact is that through the whole GPS controversy over the last few months the true story of Lightsquared has been lost. How one company could potentially help open up broadband and affordability to millions who haven't either had access or could not afford it. That is the real story of Lightsquared and the company would be wise to remind people of that. In the end, this whole Wall Street drama reminds me that anytime I hear the sky is falling, I first wonder who is saying it and second I remember, despite all the predictions over the years the sky has yet to fall. It is hard to believe it will here.