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Re: talkoption post# 33803

Wednesday, 06/01/2011 8:20:07 AM

Wednesday, June 01, 2011 8:20:07 AM

Post# of 42851
If you can't be bothered to read a handful of posts back, where it is shown that the prospectus was completely ignored in the Mirant settlement involving many of the same players (Willingham/Solomon/etc..), then you may as well short me shares of WAMPQ at 114*.20 or whatever your interpreted value is.

In case you want to save yourself the instant loss:

http://www.genon.com/investors/investors-faq.aspx contains the historical information about the exit from Mirant's bankruptcy.

You can calculate from that site:

1) The conversion ratio between preferred and common coming out of bankruptcy (54.86:1).

Which upon the most basic of Google searches on the preferred series in question would lead you to, well, let's just pick one at random:

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2002/0415/266.html

...where you would see that those same Mirant 6.25% Convertible Preferred which converted at a 54.86:1 ratio had a PROSPECTUS conversion rate of 1.8 shares to 1 against commons.

If you want to be further enlightened, you could look at the historical trading ranges on MIRKQ and MIRPQ on the pink sheets towards the end of that Chapter 11. You could then take some arbitrary standard (let's say $10,000) and calculate the actual number of new equity shares and new equity warrants they received for every dollar put into old equity.

You could then take the trading price for the new equity and new warrants (snapshot data on warrant pricing coming out of Chapter 11 is provided in the Genon link above).

You would then have an ROI on both investments at various stages of bankruptcy purchase, could compare them directly (preferred versus common), consider them overall, or do whatever you pleased...

Or, once again, you could just run into the market shorting at the prospectus conversion rate x current common share price. Whatever floats your boat.


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