Hi Silent. Thanks for the interesting charts. You don't know how ST thinks. Doesn't that bother you? I guess I'm old-fashioned phasing a chart by hand, using measuring strips or similar on stockcharts annotation feature. Here's my rub with ST:
Your first chart from left edge 1990 with no expert model phases to the July 2010 80wk low basically as you and I had done manually. I also agree with the August (early) 10wk low and the Nov 20wk low, so perfect so far. (I have the 40wk in March, but that isn't important here)
Your third chart from the left edge 1990 with Airedale's has the exact same phasing as the first chart from the March 2009 to July 2010 80wk lows. THEN, it unimaginably places the 10wk low in MID-AUG! even shorter than the price low and places the 3rd 10wk low in mid-Dec.
Meanwhile, your middle chart with the left edge 2009, no expert model is again the same for the 40wk lows March 2009-July 2010. Then there is a shocking placement of the 1st 10wk low in Mid-Nov, close to where the 3rd 10wk low was placed in the 3rd chart.
Then the 20wk low is where I have the 40wk low!! How does a 20wk cycle run 37wks???
Now if ST is an automated software with "fairly tight Hurst rules set as parameters", how can it come up with such severely contradictory phasings post July 2010, when they are fairly the same from March 09 to July 2010? That is the rub. Now let me make this very clear. I ask these questions purely from an academic point of view. I have the upmost respect for your work and I suspect you may have struggled with the same questions. Perhaps these are the pitfalls you eluded to.
For me, I struggle with the phasing too, don't get me wrong. I currently have last week Tues-Wed as the 10wk low off the March 40wk low, coming in at a lengthening 49TD or so. Assuming this is correct, I've got the 20wk low slated for the last week in July, possibly into Aug 1st. July should be an ugly month, esp the last 3 weeks.
Cheers and good health,
Slinky
