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China oil demand expected to hit almost 560 mil mt by 2015
Singapore (Platts)--24May2011/605 am EDT/1005 GMT




China's demand for oil will grow 4-5% a year to hit 530 million-560 million mt (10.6 million b/d-11.3 million b/d) in 2015, with transport fuel and chemical feedstocks driving the increase, a senior Chinese researcher said Wednesday.

Growth will then slow to 2%-3% a year, to reach 590 million-650 million mt by 2020, said Liu Xiao Li of the Energy Research Institute, part of China's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.

"Transport fuel and chemical feedstock will account for 70% of the oil demand in 2020, up from less than 50% in 2000," she said, speaking at the Russian Asian Oil Summit.

With oil production in 2020 expected to be 200 million-230 million mt, that would imply an import dependence of around 65%, she added.

China's strategy to mitigate the risk associated with such a high dependence on imports includes efforts to improve energy conservation and efficiency; increased focus on domestic exploration and production; increased investments in oil and gas abroad; diversification of import sources; and the development of alternative transport fuels.

The NDRC's research showed that China's apparent oil and oil product consumption in 2010 was 449 million mt, up 12.2% over 2009.

China does not release official oil demand statistics, and reporting agencies often have differing figures for the country's apparent oil demand.

Platts calculates the country's oil demand based on official data on refiners' crude throughput and net oil product imports.

Platts' analysis for 2010 put China's apparent oil demand up 11.43% year- on-year at a record 434.40 million mt, or an average 8.71 million b/d.

Transport fuel made up 65% of the demand and agriculture and fishing 15%, said the NDRC's Liu; and crude oil imports were at 236 million mt in 2010, up 19% over 2009. Import dependence last year was 53.8%.

Last week, in a presentation at the International Air Transport Association's Aviation Fuel Forum, Standard Chartered Bank said China would overtake Europe as the world's second largest consumer of oil before 2020, with around 13 million-14 million b/d of demand.

The bank's data indicates China would catch up with the US sometime after 2030. Standard Chartered's data has China's oil demand approaching 17 million b/d around that year and still rising, with US oil demand around 18 million b/d and falling.

US demand for crude oil and other liquid fuels is currently running about 19 million b/d.

--Thomas Hogue, [e-mail]

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