Cont. reply: Also you can refine the time length more accurately by subtracting the estimated amount of panic selling. Usually smaller block trades. If you are trying to pick the bottom you will want to start buying into your position within the last 3-5 days before the estimated end date of share liquidation approaches. Otherwise you can see the potential of the share price running away from you rather quickly, especially if your looking to take a large position. My estimator showed that the end date would close in on this week. One thing it does is give you pscycological holding power, because you can base your decisions on numerical facts instead of emotion. This can make you a lot of money. As I mentioned, the last guests at a fire sale party stand to benefit much more substantially. Not withstanding there can be frustration if you have to adjust your indicators to the fear factor or addittional share offerings not factored into the model, which I dont see at this time. You do need a good chart program to pull data you need and a calculator, thats it. I first used this model about 15 years ago, after I found an offshore investor was cashing in all their shares in a company I'd been watching. It predicted the bottom to the exact day. 100% in 5 days is nice. Also when startup companys need cash, especially biotechs, example watch: ASTM astromm biosciences projected a few months ago that their cash flow would hold out till the end of june. So as they did last fall when they sold 10 million shares in a private placement, they will have to do again. Insiders know this, therefore when the huge rally happens again, if your long flip those shares or take a short position on the heels of the shorts, because very shortly (pun intended) they will be buying back all their shares on the day of dilution, and they will have cashed all the longs off the table. Hope this helps, It took some painful experiences to see the value in knowing what I had'nt been seeing. Sincerely yours, KB.
