Friday, April 08, 2011 3:13:12 PM
How? MMTE has 31,000 acres of concessions averaging around $20,000/acre. Right now lithium carbonate is selling for about $5000/ton. So MMTE has roughly 4 tons/acre, or a total of 124,000 tons of lithium carbonate. But how should this apply to our current market cap as a non-producing lithium mine? Easy, compare to another non-producer who has proper valuation because it is on a higher exchange. Let's use Canada Lithium Corp, also a non-producer right now.
Canada Lithium Corp has 300,000 tons of lithium carbonate
MMTE has 124,000 tons of lithium carbonate
Canada Lithium Corp has a current market cap of $221 USD, and had a $450 market cap earlier this year.
MMTE currently has a market cap of about $16M, and had a cap of $1.6M earlier this year
MMTE has about 1/3 (actually slightly more) of the lithium carbonate that Canada Lithium Corp has. So, roughly speaking, MMTE should have 1/3 the market cap of of Canada Lithium Corp. That means MMTE should have between a $70M and $150M market cap, which is PPS .015 to .032.
NOTE: THE MARKET CAP FLUCTUATES AS THE PRICE OF LITHIUM CARBONATE CHANGES, CURRENTLY ITS $5000/TON. I'll FURTHER NOTE THAT THE CANADA LITHIUM CORP WILL HAVE TO OPEN PIT MINE HARD ROCK FOR THEIR LITHIUM, AND DRY IT USING MACHINES, WHILE MMTE HAS WHAT'S CALLED A BRINE PIT, WHERE ALL YOU DO IS EXPOSE THE SAND IN THE CLAIMS SO THAT THE WATER WHICH CONTAINS THE LITHIUM (BRINE) CAN EVAPORATE NATURALLY AND AT NO COST
In producing form, in Chile, 23% net profit is average. So if MMTE were to do a 6 year mine life of 20,000 tons/year of lithium, right now that would be about $100M/year in revenue, netting $23M dollars. Use PE 20, get net worth of $460M or PPS .10.
You'll also see that at 124,000 tons of lithium carbonate, MMTE will have roughly 1.2% of all of Chile's reserves. This would make it an aquisition target for SQM, Chiles leading lithium producer, who adds about 10% to their reserves each year which is about 500,000 tons/year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium
http://www.canadalithium.com/s/Home.asp
http://www.canadalithium.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=445617&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Canada-Lithium-Provides-Background-Information-on-the-Quebec-Lithium-Projec...
I am the Carl Ichan of shell stocks.
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