For the naysayer’s on Y-Board:
I’ve gotten flack on the Y-Board for posting my raw opinions. They were just that; devoid of any supporting substance because they were taken out of context. I apologize to all for that error, and won't do it again.
Not wishing to deemed a pumper, I’ve layed out the totality of my thinking in this one posting (and sincerely hope that it addresses the complaints received on Y), which I call: Rosen’s ‘One More River to Cross’ …
The overall consensus (on both this and the Y Board) seems to now be that SG has some sort of asset-related-‘bombshell’ that it will detonate (or threaten to detonate) come the June 6th confirmation hearing. Implicit in this consensus is that SG has, in some sort of undisclosed manner, communicated that fact to TPS, Black Horse, LTW and ANICO, and that each and every one of these disparate parties has adopted some sort of ‘collective-stand-down’ approach, vis-à-vis any further action with respect to their individually stated concerns.
Now, fresh off a stunning, if wholly uncontested victory in getting the DS approved (and my heart goes out to the abandoned Ms. Harper, and Messrs. Zollinger and Mason), Rosen moves the confirmation hearing back a month to June 6th. But why back it off so far into the future and heighten the risk that SG’s appeal will be heard? First it was March 18th, then May 2nd , and now June 6th. And why give SG additional time to conclude its investigation of the insider trading allegation, which could very well result in the preferreds being definitively ‘in-the-money’ as we roll into the confirmation hearing?
Let’s assume the ONLY thing that CAN be rationally assumed at this juncture: that the reason for setting the confirmation hearing date back a month was to give Rosen more than adequate time to extract every single bit of relevant asset related information contained in PJ Solomon’s noodle. And in doing so, let’s further assume that (as to Rosen) whatever PJ Solomon knows totally trumps any concern about insider trading or the likelihood that the appeal will come to fruition; and that’s because, in wanting to know what Solomon knows, Rosen protects HIMSELF AND HIS FIRM from a charge of bankruptcy fraud. In other words, PJ Solomon is Rosen’s ‘One Last River to Cross’, so to speak before the consummation of an otherwise ‘epic’, if not highly problematic crime. And strangely enough, SG’s recent actions (or the lack thereof) seem to nicely dovetail into Rosen’s now perceived concerns, in that SG has not, to date, opposed Rosen’s efforts in this regard; indeed, for all we know, discovery may already be underway, despite the readily available assertion of attorney-client privilege (which we’ve not seen), nor attorney work product defenses (which, again, we have not seen asserted) which could surely be relied upon to at least slow down, if not entirely bring to a screeching halt Rosen’s efforts in this regard).
However, let’s forget about all that; and for the sake of this very brief analysis, let’s stack the deck completely in Rosen’s favor and see where it takes us … just for fun/. Let’s assume that Rosen does everything short of water-boarding Solomon to extract everything he knows about WAMU’s assets. And let’s also assume that SG files no objections to that discovery. I’d respectfully suggest that there’s ONLY one conclusion which could be reached to explain such behavior; such inaction on the part of an otherwise highly-motivated (and thoroughly INCORRUPTIBLE SG … and I certainly believe them to be exactly that). And that’s that Solomon doesn’t possess the ‘bombshell’ … but that it is possessed by SOMEONE ELSE; someone yet unidentified, and thus wholly beyond the prying reach of Rosen’s discovery. Someone who doesn’t merely know about a bombshell, but is, in fact, the bombshell itself.
Yesterday, Mordicai hit on it by saying: “In the meantime [SG] kept their valuation information secret so they could go about getting interested buyers or capital, so they could create a workable alternative por. The senior note holders have to be paid off someway or another , before the litigation against fdic and jpm could ever continue imho” …
As indicated, I dug into my archives to find a very interesting post from a wonderful contributor, Patience360, who wrote, on this very board, way back on December 27th, the following:
"NOLs, EC Knows It Fully Well pt. 1 27-Dec-10 05:05 pm
There is something people on this board largely ignored or paid no attention to. There is a little “secret” I was hesitate to tell before. When I wrote the post “Trial!!!” (11/30) in which the first half of the post was based on Susman October billing statement, I left out one little intriguing item from the billing on purpose. I noticed people who read the billing made no mention of that “item” at all, which made me quite perplexed at the time.
To call it a “little secret” is a stretch. It’s in the open and on the record. On Susman October billing statement, there is a line item dated on October 20th, recording Mr. Seth Ard had a 90 minutes conversation with A. Sole regarding “marketing reorganized company” (SS Oct. Billing Statement, pdf. p. 25). Above the line item, there is another line item “reviewing latest plan and settlement”. It’s clear the “latest plan” was referred to POR v.6; and since the “settlement” can mean many things and we got burnt by speculating on its meaning so many times before, we can toss it aside in this discussion. However, “marketing reorganized company”, what’s that about? If, per the GSA/POR, all equities are supposed to be cancelled and will have no role in the reorganized WMI, so why equity attorneys took hours to even talk about “marketing” the reorganized company among themselves? Besides, EC legal counsel is not the debtors’ marketing consultant after all.
The reason that I didn’t raise the issue earlier was I didn’t want to get people hyped up unnecessarily and for the wrong reasons (regarding our prospects in WMRRC) but only have our hope crashed if things do not turn out our way later. More importantly, I needed to see further evidence to clarify or re-enforce my thinking. Of course, I could be totally wrong in my reading so I remained salient on the information. Even now, I still urge caution against reading too much into the information other than a routine event of discussing the debtors’ marketing plan among our lawyers in order to better understand the value of reorganized company. In a fuller context we are now aware of, it’s most likely that (Ard-Sole) discussion was about the likelihood of “marketing (or perhaps selling) reorganized company” (no matter who owns it) for valuation purpose, and its potential implication to the overall case.
No matter what, I think EC has laid its eyes on reorganized WMI long ago, and knows the inner workings of NOL tax attributes and their potential values all along. Both PJS and EC Chairman Mr. Willingham are forensic accountants. They had cooperated in Mirant and other bankruptcy cases in the past. They understand, in my view, the most valuable asset of reorganized WMI will be its tax attributes that can yield a potentially astonishing amount of future tax benefits. There is no way for professionals like PJS, Willingham, and EC legal experts to overlook the potential tax benefits of NOL carry forwards. I think they knew this issue fully well even before debtors’ motion to abandon and Tricadia motions."
As indicaed, I tip my hat (again) to Mordicai ... and especially to Patience360, who may have well written the single greatest post in the entire history of iHub. IMO: This is the route that SG has taken. And this is why everyone has been stunned into respectful silence.
Lastly, as I tried to indicate yesterday, For me, the Black Horse motion was the most compelling document that I’ve read to date in these entire proceedings. Morever, the lawyer that defended the positions contained in that document was far and away the most most eloquent (and knowledgeable) speaker to ever have taken the microphone in this case of pompous windbags and air-hogs. Think about it if you will. Re-read it if you must. Fair, scholarly, concise and straight-ahead, the Black Horse motion was written, not so much as what a CREDITOR would write (stay with me on this now), but what a PROTECTOR, or indeed a potential SUITOR,(of what WMI COULD become – with the proper PARTNER, of course) would say. Is there anyone who could not imagine a better match then Black Horse in the traces, providing transport to all the places that a vengeful WMI2 might want to go?
Hopefully, all this will address those at Y who cringe at my unsupported opinions.
AI
