The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

my Carnakian skills are no better than yours, however, i would be surprised if the Japanese substitute LNG for nuclear in order to meet their electrical power requirements both for natural security reasons and because their will be more competition for hydrocarbon fuels from other SE Asian countries. I think LNG is more likely to supplant oil and coal.

from http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/electricity.html

natural gas and nuclear accounting for about 51 percent of total generation and coal another 31 percent. The remaining portion is split between renewables and petroleum-based liquid fuels. Japan's reliance on nuclear power increases over the projection period, from 24 percent of total generation in 2007 to 34 percent in 2035. The natural gas share of generation declines slightly over the same period, from 28 percent to 27 percent, and coal's share declines to 23 percent, being displaced by nuclear and—to a much smaller extent—renewable energy sources.

Solar power, increasing by 27.2 percent per year from 2007 to 2035, is Japan's fastest growing source of renewable electricity, although it starts from a negligible amount in 2007. A recipient of favorable government policies, the growth in solar power outpaces wind power, which increases by 3.8 percent per year. Both solar and wind power, however, remain minor sources of electricity, each supplying less than 1 percent of total generation in 2035, as compared with hydropower's 8-percent share.