FDA Plays

[InTheTrenches]

Agree with your assessment, except I think the temporary pop could be higher than $30.

That gray area (approval with restrictions) is so difficult to handicap. FDA's 3-month decision delay added to the probability of restrictions, IMO. Too difficult to determine what FDA is thinking on those restrictions.

My wager with options is relatively small. I wouldn't feel comfortable holding the stock through FDA decision, unless I could get it for under $20, but that's not going to happen in the next few weeks without a bear raid.

Also, trying to ride a runup to FDA decision and sell before the decision may be complicated by the 3-month delay. Will the FDA use all of that 3 months, or issue an early decision?

Given the current stock price, I'm comfortable holding a few options through FDA decision, but not the stock.

ITT