FDA Plays

[oldberkeley]

Exactly, this one needs even a closer risk/reward weighing than most.

I'd agree with your CRL number but honestly don't see that happening. On the other hand, there almost definitely will be some label restrictions, most notably regarding use by African-Americans. The question is how much that restriction will lessen the post-approval pop, and opinions vary.

I think that you're being a bit optimistic with $35 as a potential short-term gain; I'm being much more conservative and saying $30, which further narrows my risk/reward calculations.

Here's an older article (December, 2010) that does a decent job of summing up the situation and stating the bullish point of view:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/human-genome-sciences-glaxosmithkline-benlysta-lupus/12/6/2010/id/31534

Notice that the PPS he quotes, two months ago, is virtually the same as Friday's close. It has really been range-bound.

Best of luck.