From a simple mathematical basis, given an overall average of equal chance of a gain or loss, the best choice is 50-50 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 0.6 x 0.4 (or 0.4 x 0.6) = 0.24 0.7 x 0.3 (or 0.3 x 0.7) = 0.21 ...etc Its a bell curve with 50-50 at the peak.