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MELI chart: OBV shows one of the larger

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tothe Member Level  Wednesday, 02/09/11 08:18:33 PM
Re: ~6979~ post# 17
Post # of 64 
MELI chart: OBV shows one of the larger shareholders sold shares in November. Share structure started stabilizing righi away even through the correction last month. As retail sold in profit taking last month, OBV continued to rise: whoever is buying is shrinking the trading float. ChiOsc is showing that for whole month of February that MM's were buying into the run, confirmed by CMF(5). MFI(66) is showing no long term money out while CMF(60) has crossed into positive territory.
What I see here is a slow growth stock where you have intermediate traders in the play as indicated by the sawtooth AccumDist and in & out of money shown in the CMF(5&20).
The up-slope in OBV means someone other than a trader is buying, volume money flow is positive. If there is a good 10-k in the cards next month the momentum/trend indicators will start turning up and some of them sharply.
What is a float lock-down????

Institutional ownership..shows 110% ownership...whaaaaa???
http://www.dailyfinance.com/company/mercadolibre-inc/meli/nas/institutional-ownership
Quick fundies
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=meli&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Filings
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001065088&action=getcompany

TOTHE's charting compilation

I use the three indicators below to track the sentiment of the different sectors of investors in a stock, their actions on the chart coincide with the actions within these three different sectors of investors/traders:

First... On Balance Volume is the one that tracks insider and registered shareholder money going in and out of the stock, the OBV indicator will go down when different SEC forms are filed showing dilution by insiders.

Second ... Accumulation/Distribution tracks the individual retail shareholder. many times Accum/Dist will go up while the PPS of a stock is going lower and lower; also while the PPS is going lower, investors on the message board for the stock, will be talking about buying, and how many shares they hold.

Thirdly... Chaikin Oscillator controls the PPS more than the other two.... the PPS will tank when this indicator goes down, even if OBV and Accum/Dist are going up, this fact alone makes know this indicator tracks "the shares" that rule the stock (MMs in other words). OBV, and Accum/Dist can be going up, but until ChiOsc goes up the PPS will stay lower, or continue going down..... Chiosc can go up before the PPS goes up, indicating that MMs are accumulating before a run. Now that the shorting rule has changed to allow shorting on the way down, they can cover on the way down, this also makes it easier for them to short a stock into the ground.

Note on BB's that I have found after much observation:
The bottom bollinger Band isn't used to detect shorting, it is a percentage indicator of the PPS movement. The bottom bollinger will go down fast when a stock has a low beta (CCME is .59), and makes a significant move. MMs will usually keep the "close of the day" in a tight range to bring the Bottom B Band up to the PPS area before taking the PPS up. A good book to read for Bollinger Bands is "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands" by Bollinger.

Summery
OBV = Insiders, big share holder investors(institutional, etc) and Registered shareholders (that is; individual shareholders with more than 5% holdings in the company).

Accum/Dist = over the counter individual Retail shareholders with less than 5% of the company stock.

ChiOsc = those who control the stock PPS and chart actions, that being MMs.

These three technical indicators have explanations on StockCharts.com and other places, that tell what they do technically, but they also work to track the buy/sell sentiment of the different sectors of shareholders.
Breakout indications you would watch for OBV, CHiOsc, MFI and Accum/Dist all turning up together... with less weight to Accum/Dist. & more weight to ChiOsc & MFI turning up together.

CharbiesLarby's single trigger charting compilation

When I look for a bottom on the charts I often like to play the FullSTO, a great indicator of a bottom. I will not enter a stock until the STO performs an up-cross and breaks the 20 on a positive trend. I will generally sell when the STO forms a top above 80. The beauty of playing this pattern is you don't need to hold until the top, a buy when the STO is bottomed out is almost guaranteed to go green-ALMOST.
annotated example
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59464157
His board
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=18191

kgoodrich's Trigger list compilation

#1. AROON- 8 you watch as the Aroon down crosses the 75 down and the aroon up comes up from zero. Most important. (\0/)
#2. WILLIAMS%R- 9 You watch the line cross the 50.
#3. CMF- 15 You will usually only see growth when the CMF is in the negative.
#4. ADX/DMI-5 You watch as the D+ line either crosses the D-, or crosses above the 20.
#5. MACD histogram- 5,15,10 You watch the negative bars register -50% smaller then the bar before it, or -50% smaller then the largest in the grouping.
#6. Full Stoch- 5, 5 You watch the fast line cross the slow line while the aroon down(8) crosses the 87.50. Crossing the 20 would be best, when the williams agrees.
#7. Bollinger Band 20,2 You watch for the Magic Box to occur when the negative close touches above the lower bolly and the next day’s close to it is positive growth in a white candle.
#8. RSI 5 you watch as the indicator crosses above the 50 for a quick pop.

Links to kgoodrich or Chartinator on chart application toward buying stock for the compound
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37119243


Lowtrade charting compilation

Momentum
TRIX - rate-of-change of smoothed moving average
momo

StochRSI - overbought and oversold levels in RSI
momo

ROC - percent change
momo

Stochastic - over bought / over sold
momo

RSI - Average Gain / Average Loss
momo

WM%R - price close vs. range top /bottom
momo

----------------------------------------------------------
Trend
Aroon - close high /low
trend

DMI - price direction / ADX strength
trend

ATR - gap /small move - up down reversal
trend

Macd - +/- moving averages - direction & strength
trend

PPO - increasing / decreasing price
trend

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Volume
PVO - increasing / decreasing volume
volume

OBV - close above vs below totals
volume

Acc/Dist - ave close totals
volume

CMF - A/D strength divided by volume = pressure
volume

MFI - RSI volume-weighted
volume


TRIX & Aroon are trend indicators, not momo. As they are not oscilators but do present a stocks trend indication.

momentum/ trend indicators
RSI, & MFI; are oscillators. Good for support of trend.

MFI over bought over sold; 0 to 100, 50 is zero
RSI over bought over sold; o to 100, 50 is zero

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a momentum indicator that is similar to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in both interpretation and calculation. However, MFI is a more rigid indicator in that it is volume-weighted, and is therefore a good measure of the strength of money flowing in and out of a security


Volume indicators

OBV & CMF are volume indications good for pressure expected when a move starts.CMF shows pressure. 0 is zero + positive, - negative
Accumulation Distribution shows pressure, bottom is zero shows increasing and decreasing. Not +/-
OBV being less useful then AccumDist, AccumDist which is in turn less useful the CMF. Because AccumDist was an improvement to OBV and CMF an improvement to AccumDist. We should always put more weight on CMF.

Being in or being out vs.get in or get out: RSI and MFI

Like StochRSI, MFI shows 2 indications. Strength & overbought/oversold, because it graphs like an oscilator. It mainly relies on RSI for it's basis.

MFI uses volume with RSI to determine if more money is coming into a stock, then going out. And because the consensus is, price follows volume. You can judge entry/exit with the RSI position on the graph. MFI above 80 signals entry and below 20 exit.

While StochRSI signals Be In the stock or Be Out of the stock. MFI signals get In or Out.

It has a different focus then OBV, Acc/Dist, or CMF. While being in the volume group, because it uses volume in it's formula. It is mainly used for decision making, rather then support.

Like the Aroon, I disagree with where the books place this indicator. I would put it in the momo group, where you find other decision making indicators. They have the aroon in the momo group for decisions and I would place that in the trend group.

RECAP, MFI determines entry exit, or positive negative momentum. It's name and placement in the volume group is misleading. IMO

Summery
Choose 3 indicators, one trend, one momentum & one volume. Your watching for trend entry, will retail support your decision and how strong to expect any move you enter, will be. My choices to fulfill these are DMI, StochRSI and CMF.

sources

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45219382&txt2find=mfi

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45336616&txt2find=mfi

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45337703&txt2find=mfi

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48320279&txt2find=mfi

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id

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