World Surveillance Group Inc (fka WSGI)

[rocky301]

Reflections from Scott Dann
Project Co-Manager of Access 5 on envisioning the future of UAVs:

Although I've been involved with UAVs for over a decade, I am still amazed when I hear the question, "Do you think we are going to see many unmanned aerial vehicles flying around in the future?" To me, the picture is increasingly clear. The coming of UAVs will likely prove to be one of the most dramatic and visible changes in air transportation since the introduction of the jet engine. Unmanned aircraft like Predator, Global Hawk, and others are being used extensively in military combat, and commercial applications are on the horizon. How can we be certain? A simple look at the current state of the industry and a good understanding of history tells us so.

The use of UAVs in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq has already proven the effectiveness of these systems for surveillance and reconnaissance. Their integration into the military capability is a matter of record and visibly on the increase; the recent successful demonstration of weapons release from a UCAV is but one indicator. UAVs are now at a similar point in history that manned aircraft were during WWI. With history as our guide, we should see civil and commercial application follow much like in the early 20's and 30's, when barnstormers, mail carriers, and the great pioneers of the early airlines were just getting started. If UAVs follow the same trend, the commercial markets for unmanned aircraft will dwarf the military sector in the long run. The big question that seems to concern most everyone is, "What are going to be the larger commercial applications for UAVs?"

To answer this question we must remember that UAVs are simply aircraft that are operated or piloted from the ground. Two technologies have matured sufficiently to allow this: satcom data-links and the Global Positioning System (GPS). GPS has already made dramatic changes in aerial navigation for manned aircraft, and many other modes of transportation as well. The application of Satcom data-links has not yet had as dramatic an effect on manned aircraft, but is certain to when fully integrated.

Commercial proliferation of UAVs requires that a few other technologies also be perfected, proven, or certified. For example, detect-see-and-avoid capabilities and GPS-based landing systems need to be validated and certified. These "new" systems, in conjunction with Satcom data-links and GPS, are what I refer to as the UAV "enabling" technologies. They are driving change in all fields of aviation. However, the question persists as to what major UAV commercial applications will emerge that result in dramatic and visible changes to the public.

Commercial markets are driven by product innovations or economics. Wherever the application of "enabling" technologies can be used to drive costs down or introduce a new capability, there is potential for major change. The evolution of the efficient smaller turbo-fan in the 90's enabled regional jets, which changed the regional airline industry forever. In a similar fashion, UAV enabling technologies have the ability to make single pilot airliners a reality, and the cost saving from this one change alone would have a dramatic affect on airline profitability.

How could UAV technologies help this happen? If a single pilot is unable to perform her duties, the implied assumption is that an "auto-pilot" or "ground based pilot" could take over. This would not only require that the aircraft have the appropriate means for flying autonomously and landing (which the technology already exists in those aircraft today), but appropriate aviation infrastructure to safely and reliability handle the capacity of many aircraft. Secure and available aviation data-links would have to exist, ground-based "cockpits" and the like. In these traditional mainstream aviation applications, economics will pull UAV technologies into the system. The benefits and cost saving will be huge. Airbus has already committed to producing aircraft that are single pilot rated and optionally piloted. Single pilot operations and fully autonomous aircraft could evoke a similar revolution in the air cargo industry as well.

It is also worth noting that ground based pilot centers might also provide a step improvement in aviation safety for the majors and air-cargo operators because it could permit these centers to be staffed with engineers and experts capable of advising "single piloted" aircraft critical systems analysis and advice in emergencies situations, much like "NASA control centers" do today for space travel.

So if you are wondering what the applications of UAVs will be in the future, there is no single new "magic bullet" application, such as airborne cellular relay or autonomous pipeline surveillance, though not bad ideas in themselves. Rather, look to the sky at the existing aircraft flying there and understand that UAV technology will change mainstream aviation forever. Then you'll easily be able to imagine looking out your cabin window at the start of a future airline flight, and seeing a completely windowless aircraft taxi by. And it will be a common sight.
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