Len and Skillz I have great respect for people on this board
I actually bought most of my stocks based on the suggestion on this board (e.g MDF I got the tips from Shmolton and Bobwins 2 years ago back in Bobwins VM RB board). I think that shows how much I value the picks and opinion of people in this board
I think my statement earlier wasn't complete... I should have said that I probably will not buy if everyone in this board already purchase the stock at much lower price.. and that the stock is considerably not cheap anymore, then I might not want to buy... I wanted to buy together when they bought.. for example Bob and Shmo bought TGA below $1.. and recently it was $8... and they still hold them.. but it doesn't mean it's still a good buy at $8.. (I'd love to get in together with them at $1, and I did has the opportunity but I didn’t pull the plug)
Earlier I mentioned MDF.. I am still holding (I was in at way below $1), but I clearly feel it was expensive when it's above $2.8 (it goes as high as $3.34), and I told everyone I know to sell… and they did and they were glad.. I didn’t sell because I’m looking for the long term and I didn’t want to deal with the tax situation and day to day fluctuation… (I’m looking for 2-5 years timeframe).. and the fact that everyone is still holding when it was $3 doesn’t mean this MDF stock is cheap… I also know it’s not extremely cheap now…It could be cheap if their performance is what I expected (btw.. I also told people in the yahoo MDF board and they were all over me for expressing my negative view on it when it was $2.8+).
So Skillz, I agree with you that MDF upside is not much from here… at least not in the next 1-2 years… maybe 3 years from now (2008) they might improve a lot more… but you are right.. in the mean time, there are many other stocks that might and will provide more return than… most of us here I believe bought MDF below $1 so 100%+ return in 1 year is not bad at all…
I know I have no excuse because I already said it earlier about my negative view about top pick stock in this board and it did imply that I have no respect on the stock picking capability...
But I also do acknowledge supply and demand factor... one example was SWTX... I was reluctant to get in initially and I finally bought some after waiting for a while and then a lot of people (in this board and some other vm like board) doesn't like what they see in the earning report and also the low single digit earning growth forecast (earning was great however) and I saw a lot of message saying "I'm out" and the stock fall like a rock, I found it after the market close and I didn't have a chance to sell (so I was one of the bagholders. it's good that I didn't buy that much). but it's my fault not watching the market closely and sell when everyone is selling and everyone means other people outside this VM board too…
So I guess I did forget about the investing universe and we're barely 0.01% of the investing universe (if not less). though is some stocks if we really tally the stock, I believe we could reach 5-10% ownership or more of a company... and what they do to those shares might actually move the market...
For the case of PDGE.. it hasn’t run up much… so probably it’s still in the early stage of development..
I have made a foregone conclusion about the negative outlook of stock in the #1 top pick and it was definitely a wrong one, therefore I'm sorry...
Stan
PS: at least there’s none of very conflicting result such as a group of people are short on one stock and the other group are long on the same stock (even that could happen as some people bought at very cheap price and reluctant to sell and others might want to short at the peak)
