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Re: Jrx post# 33606

Sunday, 01/23/2011 1:50:43 PM

Sunday, January 23, 2011 1:50:43 PM

Post# of 47075
From my humble point of view,and showing all my respect to Mr Lichello; his method is kinda dangerous even if you AIM a portfolio of stocks. You could be throwing money into the wrong stocks that keep falling on a strong downtrend or even going bankrupt....
Many of the stocks wont be on the market in a future not so far away. I would say that only a small percentage (25%)will still be on the market in the next two decades.If you get caught in the middle, you might lose your money.


On the other hand you might make the proverbial $1,000,000 automatically. At the end of the day, it all comes down to risk vs reward. The problem is that we can't know, in advance what will work and what won't. Had you done a simple B&H on a small Arkansas retailer with the funny name of Wal-Mart, a $10,000 investment in 1972 would be worth $60 million! But who, in 1972, was there to tell you that? And unless you were fairly well off to start with $10,000 in 1972 was probably fairly dear money. My father, for example, having purchased a four-bedroom house in a rather upscale Long Island, New York community for $31,500 in 1965! Looking it up today the assessed market value is $727,700, with a projected decline to $711,600 two years out. The housing value change since the bubble burst. A couple years back it was approaching $1,000,000!

So, the point is unless you want to trade all your stock market risk for inflation risk, i.e., not investing in the market at all but keeping one's investments in relatively low-yield cash investments, that's a choice that only you can make. AIM and similar methodologies strive to minimize the all-or-nothing approach by balancing cash against invested, more in when the market goes down, more to cash when the market goes up.

The truly risk averse method with some better return might be to keep investing in a fund like the Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX), if you don't want to create a permanent portfolio fund of your own from various ETF components. No guarantees for any of it, but we have to try something, even if it means cash under the mattress!

Best,

AIMster

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