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Re: airedale88 post# 9581

Monday, 03/21/2005 5:46:49 PM

Monday, March 21, 2005 5:46:49 PM

Post# of 51810
aire, when I look at SPX 30-year weekly chart, and draw a cycle 39 weeks in length centered at Sep-01 and Mar-03 lows, that cycles is EXTREMELY stable from the perspective that even though at certain times the lows will arrive a bit early or at other times they will arrive a bit late, but over time then converge back to the mean - for instance, the Oct-1998 4-year and 40w/80w low is only 2 weeks off (late) when compared to avg. len 39w cycles, the April-94 40w low is only 1w off (early), the Dec-94 low is only 2w off (early), the Oct-92 low is only 1w off (late), the Oct-86 low is only 1w off (early), etc. etc. etc.

so, imho, we should revert back to the avg. len 39w, which would imply first week in June as the next (G2) 40w low.

please also note that when looking at this avg. len 39w cycle centered at Mar-03 & Oct-01 lows, within the current cycle, week 20 was week ending 1/28/05 (i.e. 1/24/05 10w & 20w cycle low).

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