JP, I like all your scenarios, but I agree with movieg, a buyback just doesn't seem economically possible. I mean, to move us back to 200 million shares (which is still quite high), Neom would have to put in over 50 million dollars at the current pps! If the things you're talking about come to pass, we'll have an even higher pps, which means a buyback would be even more expensive. Why would neom pump 50 to 100 million in cash into buying back shares? A reverse split, as much as i hate the idea (and i can tell you i'd sell the day it was announced), is a much more likely scenario in terms of trying to reach a bigger board. Now i'm glad that Neom management has told us they won't do that, but if we reach an outstanding share count of 600 million or more, i don't think, eventually, they'll have any choice (and JP, you know as well as I that jsut about every 0TC stock tries it at some point). But hopefully well before that we'll be earning enough revenues to stop the dilution, to stop using cornell, etc.
As for the earlier comments re institutional buying and thompsons watch. the simple truth is, institutions aren't buying into neom yet at any real level (and the thompsons numbers are suspect, as they really don't measure anything specific, and can't be linked to real institional buying. Mutual funds, hedge funds, etc, won't buy into a stock with such high dilution, and the potential of more dilution. It's just too risky to have your investment diluted every quarter. It simply doesn't matter how good the technology is, if management is simply cutting your investment down by a quarter every 10q to pay the bills.
I know i keep harping on this, and this is the last i'm gonna talk about dilution, beacuse we are all well aware of why it's going on (it's necessary right now, neom needs the money and doesn't have revenues yet) and how bad it is for us, the investors. But I just wanted to be clear about it, because often we have people on the board wondering why the pps isn't rising, or making predictions that just don't seem likely because of the O/S. The idea that we can reach 5 dollars any time soon is really really really wishful thinking; becoming a 2 billion dollar market cap company will take massive revenue streams. My previous price target was based on an o/s of 250 million shares or so. My new price target has to be based on the current O/S, and on the likely future O/S when these things come to pass. Bottom line is, if by next 10q we're at 500 million outstanding shares (which seems extremely likely), then i am predicting a market cap of 150 million (without new major news), which puts the price at around .30 cents. With good news, we could get up to 250 million market cap, which is .50. With fantastic news, maybe we could near a market cap of 400 million, but anything beyond that, IMO, would need some really incredible revenue stream news, such as word registry really taking off, or the virgin suit not just settled, but splashed all over the news wires. And of course a partnership with google, microsoft, or anyone else would also push us toward these heights.
I do believe the virgin case will be settled fairly soon, based on what i've read here and the dockets, and on the thought that a settlement makes sense for virgin (and imo, would not be pricey for them, as i've said before, neom would be behooved to accept just about anything to be able to announce a positive settlement w virgin, thus boostering the strength of their patents). And like others here, i do expect a domino effect when that happens; someone will have to partner with neom if neom's patents are upheld, be it microsoft or google. And when that happens, we're going to move nicely up. 5 dollars, IMO is a pipe dream. But a buck is still a possibility.
Best,
Joe
AI
