unixguy
Only if you sit over a bucket of water and make Waves when the eggs hit.
I've written about Metcalfe's law and that is probably too theoretical so let me explain it better at this point. I don't know the timeline for the GREAT takeup (the curve in the hockey stick)
I suggest, however, that each of us think about when we
1. First Heard about Fax machines. (I owned stock in a company called TelAutograph in the late 60s)
2, First saw them (I believe the first one I saw in an office was mid 80s over ten years later.)
3. Used on regularly. In another office in the mid 90s.
4. Personally got one in the late 90s.
5. basically included in all technology...now.
Most business people started getting them in the mid 80s because OTHER PEOPLE HAD THEM AND EXPECTED YOU TO HAVE ONE.
They multiplied quickly once folks expected YOU to use what they already had. It's what the tipping point really describes.
In the last week, I think we've reached the tipping point for writers...the information leaders, talking heads are going to have to know what is going on now. In our society once it reaches folks like CNET and Information Week it spreads quietly for six months and then suddenly everybody who needs to know knows. Then another six months goes by and those people who don't know are TOLD they need to know and buy.
In April the guys in the journals are going to be told that those TPM thingies connect to MSFT and Longhorn. The first adopters will start telling their customers that they need to communicate some documents SECURELY and here's how you do it.
It spreads. (Metcalfe starts kicking in) As it spreads their customers tell their customers who tell their customers.
Unixguy is right except for one thing. MSFT has gotten so big that the REQURE 100 million machines ALREADY inside the marketplace BEFORE they are willing to introduce LONGHORN. Levy told us that the day June was Ours!
MSFT has had its usual delays, but I don't think they were in a great rush either because the TCG partners were all dancing around each other to figure out how NOT to lose money on building machines that would not match tipping point sales timelines. too soo lose...too late loose.
The 100 million are now planned. They get sold or a big chunk so that MSFT is comfortable putting that sticker on machines and starting the marketing campaign for the retail market as well as working out the mfg installation deals.
That's why IMO a good part of sks's talk was about the services and the subscription management ideas. We are in the box(es) and he has mentally moved on to the next stage.
Next tipping point will be articles in the journals on some kind of regular basis about HIPPA and health industry requiring this new kind of secure interoperability.
Why there? Everybody wants health privacy. It's government mandated and it doesn't have the stigma putting it out there as they've secured the server so let's go hack it which is what the fear of most IT managers who don't want their companies to talk about their security changes.
If this isn't the darkness before the dawn then we will never see the dawn!!! I do think sunrise is weeks away a year behind schedule.
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