Last week, I said that bigger picture, NAAIM was still suggesting weakness as was II and AAII wasn't far off a Sell either. We also noted that huge spike in the 10-day OEX and how it might be a sign that the tide had turned and the the character of the market may have changed. I also stated that near term, it was going to get harder and harder for the Bears to make much hay. Well, this week, we've seen essentially no change in the sentiment. There are still a ton of Bulls. The trend, by my measure, is still barely down. The Options suggests weakness, though ISEE is problematic-- we are still on a strong sell from Friday, but we also have a ST Buy too and a pretty strong one. The $-weighted options are Bearish for the market. It is worth noting that this is the week before the week of expiration. That means we have a "Weird Wolly Wednesday" coming up. A wild day of trading is likely ahead. Seasonally, things are a lot less positive going into this expiration, too. I'm thinking that we get some chop lower and there's room to fall, but I think it will be hard to take it down too hard or too far. My call for the week is for a sloppy Monday, a bounce on Tuesday, then down hard on Wednesday and then a rally into Friday.
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