here is my impression:
- was wamu solvent ?
yes.
if you followed the case there was a time when they were claiming
that it wasnt. now we know it was.
what did sheila bair testify at senate hearing?
- OTS fact sheet
the OTS fact sheet is really interesting.
actually its fairly easy to calculate values from it.
10 billion credit card receivables.
they know exactly what percentage will not be paid, so...
its not hard for them to figure out that value.
(in court they know want to make it look like an impossible task to
calculate the value of visa shares....hmmm, its really sad.)
dont you think these guys can easily calculate the value of the loans and mortgages ... of course they can, its what they are doing every day...
know they want to make it look like theses mortgages are 100% default.
well, they are not.
- Wamu was a savings and loan bank, these kind of banks
are in a better position in a crisis than every other type of bank.
did wamu undersign all the CDS and CDO's ?
no wamu originated the underlying loans.
so even if the default rate is high and house prices have gone down. there is value in this loans.
they calculate how much, you can be sure of that.
- but wamu wasnt only a originator of loans, they had a big
branch network with basic banking operations.
in times of crisis the money earned from these operations is much more valuable than when Wall Street virtually creates the big gains.
so again, normally a government tells the people in times of crisis we are going to insure accounts above 100.000 $ as well
and the bank run is stopped.
but they didnt. even if they didnt, a bank run is something that
comes fast and goes fast, so the projection that a bank run will
stay at same level for several more days is illogic.
but it happened, wamu was seized.
and it's probably the biggest scam of mankind.
why is wamu bk different from other bk ?
because in a normal bk the company was insolvent, so you have to
maximize the value to satisfy as much creditors as possible.
(nowadays its actually more and more often like this case)
but with WMI the outcome now is that they are finding much more
value they expected.
but its in the nature of the game that they dont want to give money to shareholders.
Bair stated in the beginning that the shareholders are going to take "haircuts".
that's how the game was arranged from the very beginning.
it never was planned that shareholders would receive anything.
but, on the way, even if they are really trying hard it seems
difficult for them to minimize value to keep it A < L.
of course its difficult because it turns out how much value there
really was.
i wonder what would be the number if they would try to maximize assets. if they would have really tried.
- in the end, we see that FDIC, JPM, WGM, AM, creditors,
debtors, they are all taking tremendous profits.
and the shareholders are their pxin ix txe a$$.
that's all.
but in the long term they are harming the system more than
they benefit to it. and thats what we will probably
have to face in our lifetime.
- trial:
the most often heard statement of the debtor is, that its so difficult to ligitate and that it will take so much time.
well, that would be the same to JPM.
the tax refunds where put on debtors account as we know now.
so the debtor could have ligitated for years, no problem with that.
so why did they decide to make these accounts available for FDIC and JPM ?
- POR confirmation:
I really dont have any idea what will happen.
But I do know that they dont plan to settle anything or to make
billions available.
sorry, for the uninformed post without citing sources and so on...
sorry, i just wrote a few thoughts of mine.
AI
