Last week, I said that while the fact that some breadth measures had turned back up was good news for the Bulls, the bad news was that our trend indicator and the sentiment still indicated lower prices. We got them, but we already knew that they liked to sell the market down for Thanksgiving. I'm not at all convinced that we're done with the weakness, but the options allow for a bounce in here. So does the message board sentiment. Bigger picture, however, NAAIM is still suggesting weakness as is II and AAII isn't far off a Sell either. Our trend indicator is still negative as is our breadth. Of some interest is the huge spike in the 10-day OEX. This is obviously related to a couple big days, but it is nonetheless meaningful. During this entire rally, the OEX P/C has been quite low and we viewed that positively. This drop can only be viewed as a major heads-up. The "smart money" bias may well have changed to Bearish. Ideally, we'll see some chop lower that brings out even more Bears. We may not get it, but that's the hope. Soon, it's going to get harder and harder for the Bears to make much hay. My call for the week is for a decent open on Monday, but then a fade and then a rally for the first with strength into Friday that fades.
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