Thrift Savings Plan

[coolhand]

Amazing how many cross-currents there are Fred.

Last week, I said that we had all manner of sentiment telling us that we needed to be careful, but our trend indicator had not gone Bearish, now it has. The good news for the Bulls is that some breadth measures have turned back up. The bad news is that our trend indicator and the sentiment still indicate lower prices. The FL/FS is Bullish and I think we can push higher for a bit, but the polls and surveys have a lot of Bulls. Also, they like to sell the market down for Thanksgiving. Furthermore, I'm not seeing a completed corrective pattern. Now, we can turn everything back up and push higher, but the odds say, right now, that we ought to trade down next week. I'm going to look for a rally out of the gate but then for the decline to resume, then we ought to bet a bounce on Wednesday and into the half day Friday. I don't think that will be it for the weakness, but that's the call for the week.