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Re: kei post# 6034

Tuesday, 10/12/2010 10:58:19 PM

Tuesday, October 12, 2010 10:58:19 PM

Post# of 24568
ALKS - first of all, congrats on the approval!

As to the after hours price action, I say wait until tomorrow. The announcement came late in the AH session, so I don't think tonight's trading is a good barometer.

I haven't done a lot of DD on ALKS, but I do know that that the panel vote last month was overwhelmingly positive, so there is the possibility that approval was "priced in" to a certain extent.

As to the short interest, I see it as roughly 7% of the float. Nothing huge.

The approval is definitely a positive for the company and will expand VIVITROL's reach into opioid dependence. I am not sure of the market potential of this vs. the market for alcohol dependence (for which they are already approved), so I can't comment upon the potential revenue impact.

I would keep in mind that ALKS has a market cap of $1.5 billion and is not profitable. They recently took a bigger Q1 loss on lower revenue. That being said, the expansion into the opioid dependence indication will be a positive for ALKS and, from what little I have read, Bydureon holds solid potential for them as well. This has a PDUFA date of 10/22 - just 10 days away!

Hope this helps!


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