My Plays.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 19, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
Pick: Take Cleveland ATS
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Chiefs despite pulling out a big win on Monday Night have a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball. Even though I had Kansas City winning outright Monday if the weather was perfect San Diego would have won fairly easily. Kansas City only put up 197 total yards including just 62 yards through the air. The Chargers put up 389 total yards against this Chiefs defense and that included passing for 280 yards in terrible weather. The Browns looked good in their season opener putting up 340 total yards with 236 yards through the air and those numbers will only get better against this Chiefs defense Sunday afternoon. The Browns come into this game a perfect 4-0 ATS after a loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an AFC opponent. The Chiefs are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games when playing on Sunday after playing on Monday Night. The Browns get the win at home Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs
Chiefs at Browns Under 39.5: Not sure if it was the improved Chief defense or the weather that kept San Diego on lock down Monday night. Probably a combination of the two and we know the KC offense is not much under Matt (1-13 3rd down) Cassel. The Browns blew 14-0 lead at Tampa Bay finally losing 17-14 with Jake (Delhomme) being Jake. A less talented mirror image of Kansas City, the Browns rock solid defense with work in progress offense. These teams COMBINED for 537 yards total offense in Week I. This one has 13-10 written all over it, play the UNDER.
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Sunday WINNER is Minnesota over Miami.
Miami struggled to put away Buffalo LW. Minnesota lost a tough one to the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saint’s. This week, the Viking’s have 3 extra days to rest and prepare. Dolphin’s QB Henne didn’t look comfortable LW against the Bill’s and now must face one of NFL’s best pass rushing defenses. Minny has too many weapons in their arsenal. They have WR’s Harvin and Berrian. Not to mention RB Peterson. Miami’s “D” will be overwhelmed. Especially without starting DE Jared Odrick, who is out with a foot injury. The Dolphin’s are 2-10-2 ATS their L14 games played in September and the Viking’s are 5-0-1 ATS their L6 games played at home. Take Minnesota. Thank you.
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3* on Seattle Seahawks +3.5
Reasons the Seahawks cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. This is a 41-10 ATS System hitting 80.4% since 1983. Bet Seattle on the road.
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Backing the Redskins as the Play for Sunday. Yea, the Texans finally beat the Colts. They can be in for a bit of let down here. Skins of a defensive battle vs Dallas. Not much happening on offense for Washington. But this team brings the D every play. Texans not going to like what the Redskins bring to the line with every play. Take the small home pup here and watch McNabb toss 2 tds. PLAY on REDSKINS
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1* on Cincinnati Bengals +3
The Ravens won't be able to match the intensity they showed against the New York Jets last week. That was considered a "man's game", and the Ravens put their best foot forward. But we can see them falling flat on their faces this week as they travel to face the hungry Cincinnati Bengals Sunday. Cincy opened the season ugly, falling behind 31-3 at New England last week before making it respectable in a 24-38 defeat. This is basically the same Bengals team that swept the Ravens last year, except now they've added a couple key pieces on offense to make their passing game more explosive. Because Cincinnati lost last week and Baltimore won, the Ravens are the favorite. Had it been the other way around, the Bengals would be favored. That means we are getting great line value on the Bengals this week because of how things went last weekend. The Bengals won 17-14 at Baltimore last year before capping off the sweep with a 17-7 home win. In that home victory, Cincinnati controlled the ball 40 minutes to Baltimores 20 minutes and held the Ravens to just 55 yards rushing on 17 carries. So the Bengals held the Ravens to a mere 10.5 points/game in two meetings last year. Cincinnati knows how to beat Baltimore, and this becomes virtually a must-win game because nine teams that started 0-2 last year all failed to make the playoffs. Plus, the Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Take Cincinnati and the points.
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GOOD Luck.
Later, The Team.
"Your Vegas Is Showing"
I've been to Hollywood
I've been to Redwood
I crossed the ocean
for a heart of gold
I've been in my mind,
it's such a fine line
Later, The Team.
