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Zinc climbs, Copper Gains as Chinese Industrial Production Exceeds Analysts' Estimates
By Anna Stablum - Sep 13, 2010 5:28 AM PT

Copper rose in New York and London, rebounding from last week’s drop, after industrial production increased more than analysts estimated in China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal.

Production gained 13.9 percent in August from a year earlier, a statistics bureau report showed on Sept. 11, compared with the 13 percent median estimate of 29 economists. Prices also advanced as copper inventories continued to shrink, the dollar weakened and the European Union said Europe’s economy may expand more than forecast.

“Continued heavy industrial restocking is partly responsible for the robust Chinese industrial-production print,” said Daniel Major, an analyst at RBS Global Banking & Markets in London. The figures were “consistent with firm domestic demand and a soft landing for the domestic Chinese economy,” he said.

Copper for delivery in December gained 7.95 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $3.486 a pound at 8:14 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Copper for delivery in three months rose 2.3 percent to $7,656 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. All of the six main metals traded on the LME climbed, led by zinc.

Imports into China also accelerated, adding to signs that growth in the country is picking up even after the government curbed credit growth and property speculation and closed energy- intensive and polluting factories.

‘Risk Appetite’

The figures probably will add to “positive momentum for risk appetite this week,” Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole SA’s investment-banking unit in London, said in a report today. Equities advanced in Europe and Asia, and futures indicated that U.S. stock benchmarks will rise when trading begins in New York.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, dropped as much as 0.8 percent, the most since Sept. 1. A weaker dollar makes metals priced in the currency cheaper in terms of other monies.

Europe’s economy may grow almost twice as fast as previously forecast this year with a more “moderate” expansion in the second half, the European Commission said. Gross domestic product in the 16-nation euro region may increase 1.7 percent this year instead of a previously projected 0.9 percent, it said in a report published today.

Europe consumes about 20 percent of global copper output and some 15 percent of aluminum production, according to Barclays Capital estimates for this year.

Inventories Shrink

Copper production in China fell 0.3 percent to 397,000 tons in August from the prior month, statistics bureau data showed today. Output gained 8.8 percent from a year earlier.

LME copper stockpiles dropped for a seventh day to 390,450 tons, the lowest level since Nov. 9, according to daily exchange figures. Orders to draw copper from LME inventories, or canceled warrants, declined for an eighth day to 20,700 tons, the lowest level since Aug. 13.

Tin for three-month delivery on the LME advanced 1 percent to $22,099 a ton after touching $22,250, the highest intraday price since Aug. 1, 2008. The metal is this year’s best performer on the LME, rising 30 percent.

Prices may gain further as supply lags behind demand, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. Tin may add 17.5 percent from $21,600 a ton, analysts including Jim Lennon wrote in a report. That equates to a price of $25,380, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Nickel, Aluminum

Nickel advanced 2.7 percent to $23,100 a ton. Financing agreements may have tied up as much as 65 percent of LME stockpiles, Credit Agricole’s Bhar said. Metal might be “released into the market over coming weeks, as the forward curve has flattened,” making such accords less viable, he said.

LME nickel inventories dropped 0.3 percent to 118,818 tons today, taking this year’s decline to 25 percent. Cash nickel’s discount to three-month metal shrunk to $4 a ton on Sept. 10, the narrowest level since Sept. 2, 2009, from $6 the prior session. Cash metal was at a $48 discount a week ago.

The number of nickel futures contracts outstanding, or market open interest, jumped 3.3 percent to 142,174 lots on Sept. 9, LME data showed. That was the highest level since April 20.

Aluminum rose 2 percent to $2,142 a ton, lead climbed 2.1 percent to $2,230 a ton and zinc added 2.9 percent to $2,171 a ton.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-13/copper-rises-as-chinese-industrial-production-exceeds-analysts-estimates.html