With all the Howard talk I have tried to find some actual numbers. As I posted previously, several things drove the subscriber base up, including Howard, all roughly within the same time frame. I am not able to locate any valid research where someone - even SIRI themselves, try to quantify the increase. Sure I can find that SIRI had X subscribers before Howard, and X a year later, but despite what some may say, 100% of those were NOT due to Howard. (I, for example, added a subscription during that time frame - as did three of my family members - none of us listen to Howard). During Howard's time at SIRI they have had a few positive things:
1) Howard joined. I am placing this as #1 so I dont get attacked.
2) Most car manufacturers began adding Sirius ready head units as OEM equipment. (My first SIRI sub I had to buy an aftermarket head unti) Combine that with the fact that auto turn over rates mean that a significant percentage of cars have been replaced during the last 5 years and you have a few million people that now own the hardware that may never have without the car purchase.
3) SIRI has added newer technology including mobile devices (both Walkman style and Boom Box style).
4) Siri now streams on the Internet which both adds an International market as well as availability on many smartphones with native apps on platforms like iPhone.
5) SIRI has added NASCAR. Do NOT discount this. You think Howard draws people - boy, "You aren't from around here, are you?" In the South, these people worship NASCAR drivers. How many of you have Howard posters, jackets, lunch boxes, backpacks, table clothes, flags, figurines, window stickers, leather jackets, etc. etc. An average NASCAR event has 200,000 attendees.
6) Football...lots of it. As with NASCAR, only an even broader market.
7) The technology has simply matured and become mainstream. When I bought my first sub people would ask about it and not even know it existed. Like having a "briefcase phone" in 1986. Now even my Grandmother has it (though she never did get a cell phone). It has become ubiquitous.
8) More windshield time. Many of the studies I have read show that more people are commuting greater distances these days, out of necessity to maintain a job.
I am sure there are other reasons as well.
So did Howard save SIRI? Probably. Would SIRI have survived on its own or found another financial supporter without Howard? Maybe. Is Howard a big draw? He absolutely was during the first year of his contract. I am sure that there were significantly diminishing returns as far as new subscribers, but obviously an impact on renewals.
I say this knowing full well that I am the minority here - but I firmly believe that if Howard leaves (particularly if it is presented as going out to do his own thing, and not as being screwed by SIRI) that the impact on the stock price will be relatively minor and it will recover within 60 days. Let's face it, we have made 15%+ swings in the last 60 days. The *ONLY* reason we would have ANY negative impact will be the media coverage of it, and a few bloggers, blowing it out of proportion. I doubt the revenue numbers would even notice an impact. And then there is that $500 Million that they could use over the next 5 years to do better things.
OK, start throwing stuff...
