Round up the usual suspects.
It's the ignorant, incompetent analysts, it’s the shorts, the market maker, somebody is cheating the system because all us IDCC shareholders can’t be wrong. We can lay out the case in spades. Therefore there is a stealth axis of evil working behind the scenes holding us down. NOT.
As I’ve told my children since they were little, life isn’t fair. Deal with what is, and don’t waste time and energy kvetching over unfairness.
Do I believe IDCC is significantly undervalued right now? Hell yes. I can make a very good case on fundamentals for the share price to be over $40 right now. However the market has spoken. I’ve watched this stock obsessively for the last ten years. In my opinion, the market is focused on licensing the top tier manufacturers. Until we get better visibility on 3G and LTE revenues from them for the future, the share price will remain in the $24-$30 range. Please don’t try to debate me. We’ve all seen the arguments ad nauseam, and I agree with many of them. You can convince me so that I make Mickey Britt sound bearish, but it doesn’t matter. The investor out there are not willing to pay over $30 a share, and the only reason I can come up with is uncertainty over Nokia signing (not only how much, but WHEN) and the renewal of LG, along with concern over how IDCC is going to use all that cash. If you feel very confident about IDCCs execution, continue to take advantage of these cheap prices, because if IDCC does execute successfully (at rates similar to LG’s agreement), I can easily see the price at double current levels in short order. However, IDCC wasn’t willing to pay $20 a share last year or $25-$28 now and investors get skittish around $28. Minor surprises like $0.20 per share just isn’t going to launch the rocketship. Unless there is a breakthrough with Nokia, I will be pleasantly shocked if LG resigns by December 31. The resigning of Kyocera was a very positive development, and the incentive of prepayment discounts do provide some hope, but given the $285 million they’ve paid over the last five years, I expect LG to be cautious about renewing. If neither Nokia or LG is signed on Jan 2, 2011, I can’t see the market valuing IDCC over $30. I am still very comfortable with my long term investment, but the longer it takes, the tougher it gets to collect past infringement and to sign other infringers.
It’s about IDCC monetizing its IP with the big boys. Until that happens, the market is going to have a low valuation on IDCC. I ain’t happy about it, but that is the way it is. No analyst, PRs, conference call pizzazz or any other window dressing is going to change that.
