ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:351256, 01/29/05
01/23: (348427) (*COMMENT*)
Re: <...by late October, I believe we will have had a print under 8000 on the dow, now, that is a bear....>
Zeev we already have over $6 trillion in money market and other short term instruments, where is money going as the market deteriorates? Are foreign markets going to suffer as well?
Long term rates don't seem to have moved like short rates have. Are you expecting longer bonds to tread water or begin a slide concomitantly?
(*END*)
If markets deteriorate, MZM keeps growing and some money is sent to "money heaven". As for long term rates, they will probably creep up from here (I don't expect an inverted curve), but the spread may not increase. Later in the year or early next year, rates may actually start down, but I still think that 5% on the 10 years is probably going to happen.
01/29: (351164) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev: does your grand vision of the market down the road suggest when we could get out of low 2,000 NAZ to high 2,000 or even low 3,000 before the end of year 2010? It appears there is always something to suffercate the sprouts of positive market sentment since its collapse in 2001, e.g., corporate accounting scandals in 2002, Iraq war in 2003, oil crisis in 2004, Iraq election in 2005, .....there is no ending in sight.
The reason that I am asking 2010 yr is because baby boomers start to retire and need to withdraw money from their investment in market and could impose a huge inbalance of supply and demand. Based on this scenario, I don't think we ever be reach NAZ 5,000 until yr 2050 or later. What do you think?
(*END*)
I don't know how to answer that question, the Nikkei is still down 70% or so from its peak in the early 90', 15 years later, no reason the Naz, which is over inflated will not take 15 years to get back to those lofty highs. I would wait to see a real secular bear market bottom. I would suggest that would be associated with a serious recession and possibly much higher inflation than we are seeing now. The Dow and SPX are more rationally priced, but even these will have to see "uncommon values" before the secular bear ends.
01/29: (351256) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Zeev with that much higher inflatio 2010 or whenever do you think that would preceed a drop in real estate. I guess the question is do you see a drop or crash in real estate or futher highs over the next few years?
(*END*)
(Part 2)
Real estate is probably one of your best defense against inflation, as long as you do not pay outrageous rates, getting fixed 30 years rates now is a gift.
(Part 3)
Zeev I hear you and my question more to the point is do you expect a 10 20 or even 30 percent drop as you forcast your panic selling this spring? Certainly it wouldnt happen as fast as the overall stock market but if invetors are hurt wouldnt it be expected that real estate would feel it too?
(*END*)
Real estate ias a local thing, I doubt you get a crash nationally in that sector. If rates climbs slowly, I doubt there will be any impact, maybe a slow down in price appreciation overall, and only for a short period. The crash of 87 had no RE repercussions, though the tax change (the "at risk" introduction into deductibility) caused a major problem (that was 82, however) including the S&L collapse, of course, the very high rates then just exacerbated the problem.
