ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:348415, 01/23/05
01/19: (347068) (*COMMENT*)
Scarey thing about this drop is the NDX is still overbought on my Stochastic. At best, neutral on others. Could be quite a ride if it cannot reverse itself soon.
(*END*)
Scary indeed, but new lows refuse to expand, and new highs have actually expanded a tad last week when we hit that 2066 level.
01/19: (347351) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I feel a bit silly asking this, but are we in the midst of the nassacre? Feels like it's upon us (tomorrow...).
(*END*)
I don't think so, though it is quite possible. We just did not get the short term extremes that often preced the onset of a major decline, but the market can teach us a new lesson every day.
01/20: (347642) (*COMMENT*)
Z: And when does a "minor" retrench become a "major" bottom? A 150 point plus drop in a few weeks in the Nasdaq is not a "minor" retrench imo for this market. Maybe it is not a "major" ... maybe "intermediate" is a term more appropriate ... but to call this pasting a "minor retrench" is the understatement of the year.
(*END*)
All I tried to say was that I can't rely on the EPC for such.
01/20: (347832) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Roadmap punt?
(Part 2)
??????
(Part 3)
"punt" is a football term . . . meaning, when you cannot advance the ball any further, you kick it to the other side, or make a risky play (depending on the situation)... if you hold it for one more play, trying to get the 1st down (a new set of plays) you risk giving the ball to the other side and giving up valuable yardage... punting is a defensive play (capital preservation), and is usually a wise choice, like a "stop loss"... take your offense of the field, rest and regroup, while your defense fights the battle and could even score on their own
of course you could always FAKE the punt <g>... another risk/reward option
(*END*)
I still do not understand, we are still well within an orderly retreat to 2040 (and getting quite oversold), no need to "punt". I take profits when offered and keep a relatively high exposure to the market, not much damage, just a little more than 100 Naz points from the recent highs. It is so typical near such turning points to have all that "hand wringing", it is getting "predictable".
01/21: (347871) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, how did you arrive at your 2040-50 target? Is it a previous support area, fib number or something else. TIA.
(*END*)
That area was resistance on the way up from early november, and on the late november retrench it served as support. It is also a number that has "latent" congestion for quite some time now. If we bounce here today, that may not be a bad area from which to launch a leg up. Major overhead resistance we will need to "deal with is of course the 2100/06 area.
01/21: (348085) (*COMMENT*)
Jeez,not again.I'm about to throw in the towel on this market.
(*END*)
Expiry day, they are playing games, it goes nowhere by the time this is over at 4:00. (g).
01/21: (348221)
(*COMMENT*)
Posted by: cannabis
In reply to: None
Date:1/18/2005 6:11:06 PM
Post 346838 of 348215
"Is 4Qs max pain really 37? They wouldn't dare."
THEY DID.<g>Oy.
(*END*)
So, where do they open us Monday, another G&C? I am getting tired of this chinese torture with indicators still quite neutral....opnion might be right.
01/21: (348254) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
Some are saying the market is afraid of a possible downgrade in GM bonds to junk status, and that is a key factor behind this selloff
(Part 2)
Hm, an interesting possibility, would that not put upward pressure on corporate bonds in general? GM stock was not particularly weak today... if that happens, it must be "baked in".
(Part 3)
Some bulls are saying the market will rally sharply if the GM bonds are not downgraded.
Junk bonds in general have been weak lately with widening spreads from Treasuries. But spreads still are very tight and well below hisitoric averages.
(*END*)
Would not junking GM bonds further narrow the spreads? By the way, my analysis of the markets internal show a divergence between the indices (new reaction lows) and various strength indicators such as AD, Up/Down volume, stocks above the 10 DMA and 200 DMA, all indicating that the January 4/5 period was the low in the latter indicators, and these are holding at much better levels today with the indices breaching.
Of course, I remain bullish with cash at 8%.
01/22: (348295) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev- lost your bear suit? SPX estimates are still too high and we are at the cusp of a major financial derivatives incident.. maybe housing or high yield debt IMTO
(*END*)
Yup, the cleaner is slow with delivery of the bear suit, I want it well cleaned since expect to wear it for a stretch this time around.
01/23: (348415)
(*COMMENT*)
Long-term Projection
If the $Compq stops at the Aug 04 lows then the whole thing will be nothing more than a (nearly) two-year wave 4 of... That's my count.
Unlike '87, any fast decline now would lead to even more scrutiny of firms like LaBranche and I think Bill and his brother are smart enough not to kill the golden goose.
It's all about eggs!
(*END*)
My target low for the year is still around 1400, and quite probably lower. Of course, the fact that early January did not yield the expected exuberance, will delay the onset, and unless the next move up really shows some major excesses, all we may have is a range bound market between the August lows (1750) and the February highs (still expect 2200 plus), still a wild range mind you. Which part of the wave, and of which cycle, I know not.
