Hi All,
On a slow day.
I tend to agree with those who hold that SE was the trigger. When one considers the few bits and pieces about the trigger that we know of and that have been exhaustively discussed here, it is a logical and reasonable conclusion and I am swayed by it to stay long and assume the risk associated with my decision.
But there is nothing certain about that conclusion. Doubts creep in and my radar is looking for blips that could be interpreted in a different sequence of events. Has anyone considered the following scenario?
SE was not the trigger. Rather than ending the arbitration at that point, as many have suggested, the parties agreed that it would benefit both of them to use the arbitration process to more precisely define the trigger and the associated royalty rates. Sooner or later these same issues would otherwise arise again.
Speculating further that sometime during the arbitration IDCC got wind of this and realizing that all of it would not matter if they could get Lucent, considered to be a more certain trigger, to sign up. Lucent, however, is aware of the situation that IDCC is in and plays hard to get. Because of time constraints IDCC decides to build a little fire under Lucent and sues them, not so much to prove antenna patent infringement but rather to get into discussions with them about more important issues, such as 2G, 2.5G and 3G licenses. What IDCC now needs is more time.
Meanwhile Nokia is playing the delaying game. They managed to put a six months delay on the arbitrators table and to their surprise IDCC agreed without fuss, in fact Howard Goldberg made a statement to the effect that IDCC welcomes it in the interest of a thorough review of the issues.
Nokia, of course, is aware that IDCC is suing Lucent over antenna patent infringement and after some procrastination realizes that the antenna patent issue is in reality a decoy. They soon discover the IDCC strategy and become aware of its implications. Out comes the shotgun. Lawsuits all over the place.
Relentlessly though, time marches on. The Nokia arbitration and the Lucent lawsuit are converging. I get the sense that Nokia already has a good idea about the final outcome, judging by their recent actions. Lucent may turn out to be the key. Regardless, we are in for a breathtaking ride that hopefully will make IDCC investors very happy.
It is amazing what one can come up with having but a few facts and lots of imagination.
Good luck to all.
HGM
