Buy-Signals, Sell-Signals and da-Boyz, Oh My, LOL!?
The Buy-Signal issued on 10Jun has been negated with the CLOSE below 46.13 and we are NOW in Full-Out SHORTIG mode based on the 22Jun Sell-Signal being confirmed!
That said, we NOW look for more clues as to how low we go on this back-test, the R1(45.57) seems like Rock-Solid support if there is ANY chance of more upness!?
The NEW Sell-Signal on 22Jun has been confirmed with a negate number of 47.16 being the line in the sand?
We expected the S&P500 to back-test the YTD OE Pivot, 1102.47, BUT, we did NOT expect it to CLOSE below said level, OUCH! The next level of meaning is the S1(1047) and we suspect we'll tag and violate said level next week?
In summary, ALL data points to a NEW YTD have been put into suspect mode and a close below 45.57 will signal a new down wave of meaning!?
4cast says, MORE DOWN!??
Date Open High Low Close
18-Jun 47.06 47.34 46.86 47.00
21-Jun 47.60 47.68 46.33 46.60
22-Jun 46.79 47.14 46.15 46.24
23-Jun 46.29 46.47 45.69 46.05
4cast
24-Jun 45.78 45.89 45.47 45.48
Buy-Signals:
The Buy-Signal from 05Feb, and the five buy-signals that followed, did NOT get negated until 27Apr! Since then we've had six Buy-Signals and ALL six have been negated!
No, Date, Negate #
1) 05Feb, 42.44
2) 11Feb, 43.12
3) 12Feb, 43.21
4) 25Feb, 44.04
5) 22Mar, 47.32
6) 22Apr, 49.68 (Negated 27Apr)
7) 29Apr, 49.60 (Negated 30Apr)
8) 06May, 45.99 (Negated 07May)
9) 12May, 48.01 (Negated 13May)
10)21May, 44.24 (confirmed 24May)
11)25May, 44.14 Not Confrimed
12)27May, 45.30 (Negated)
13)02Jun, 45.67 (negated 04Jun)
14)10Jun, 44.51 (confirmed 11Jun)
15)11Jun, 44.93 (confirmed 14Jun)
16)15Jun, 46.13 (negated 23Jun)
Sell-Signals:
Sell-Signals have definitely dominated the scene since 11Mar and we suspect they'll continute to win out over buy-signals indefitely going forward?
NO, Date, Negate #
1) 11Mar, 48.30
2) 12Mar, 48.31
3) 16Mar, 48.50
4) 18Mar, 48.79
5) 22Mar, 48.88
6) 23Mar, 49.22
7) 25Mar, 48.91
8) 29Mar, 49.19 (Negated 13Apr with a close above!)
9) 14Apr, 50.91 (confirmed with an additional Sell-Signal 15Apr)
10)15Apr, 51.13 (confirmed on 16Apr)
11)27Apr, 50.34 (confirmed on 28Apr)
12)30Apr, 50.22 (confirmed on 03May)
13)04May, 49.40 (confirmed 05May)
14)07May, 46.32 (Negated 10May)
15)13May, 48.81 (confirmed 14May)
16)18May, 47.36 (confirmed 19May)
17)20May, 45.24 (confirmed 21May, negated 27May)
18)01Jun, 46.14 (negated 02Jun)
19)04Jun, 45.99
20)07Jun, 45.16 (confirmed 08Jun)
21)09Jun, 44.70 (negated 10Jun)
22)21Jun, 47.53 (confirmed 22Jun)
23)22Jun, 47.16 (confirmed 23Jun)
Last but defintely NOT Least is the OEPM S/R lines of meaning!
53.35 20.00% R8
52.24 17.50% R7
51.13 15.00% R6
50.02 12.50% R5 (Serious resistance as of 30Apr)
48.91 10.00% R4 (violated 04May, look to the R3 for guidance now)
47.79 7.50% R3 (violated 14May, hasn't been seen since)
46.68 5.00% R2 (violated 18May on a close-ing basis and back-tested 19May)
45.57 2.50% R1 (violated 20May and NOW Serious resistance)
44.46 0.00% YTD OE Pivot (Once thought to be the FINAL Discount wave target, close at 44.35 on 20May and another violation will Open the FLOOD gates to start vilating the Support levels!!??)
43.35 -2.50% S1
42.24 -5.00% S2
41.13 -7.50% S3
40.01 -10.00% S4
38.90 -12.50% S5
37.79 -15.00% S6
36.68 -17.50% S7
35.57 -20.00% S8
