Buy-Signals, Sell-Signals and da-Boyz, Oh My, LOL!?
The Buy-Signal issued on 10Jun is still in control, BUT, we got a second Sell-Signal in as many days Tuesday and the Q's nearly closed below the 46.13 negate number, NOT Good for the bullish case!
The buy-signal issued on 15Jun was confirmed on 16Jun and the negate number, 46.13, has NOT been violated on a CLOSE-ing basis so we continue to look upward!
Da-Boyz had our attention after CLOSE-ing above the R2(46.68) AND the long-term break-out/break-down level of 46.64!! We back-tested the R1(46.68), 17Jun and it held, BUT, we could NOT even get up to the R3(47.79) on 21Jun and we NOW look for more clues as to how low we go on this back-test, the R1(45.57) seems like Rock-Solid support if this upness is for real!?
The NEW Sell-Signal on 22Jun has generated a negate number of 47.16 and it's up to the FED announcement to trigger a Cascading Waterfall event or set us up to breach the 47.16 level?
We expected the S&P500 to back-test the YTD OE Pivot, 1102.47, BUT, we did NOT expect it to CLOSE below said level, OUCH!
That said, all forward looking stuff suggest we tag the R2(1157.59), and may even have a Serious Break-Out at that level that'll make a run for the R3(1185.16), into earnings season!?
In summary, ALL data points to a NEW YTD High being tagged on this up move and we expect 46.68 to HOLD on a CLOSE-ing basis going forward for the Q's with the R1(45.57) as a possible LOW for the pull-back!?
4cast says, MORE UP!??
Date Open High Low Close
18-Jun 47.06 47.34 46.86 47.00
21-Jun 47.60 47.68 46.33 46.60
22-Jun 46.79 47.14 46.15 46.24
4cast
23-Jun 46.35 46.94 46.21 46.76
Buy-Signals:
The Buy-Signal from 05Feb, and the five buy-signals that followed, did NOT get negated until 27Apr! Since then we've had six Buy-Signals and ALL six have been negated!
No, Date, Negate #
1) 05Feb, 42.44
2) 11Feb, 43.12
3) 12Feb, 43.21
4) 25Feb, 44.04
5) 22Mar, 47.32
6) 22Apr, 49.68 (Negated 27Apr)
7) 29Apr, 49.60 (Negated 30Apr)
8) 06May, 45.99 (Negated 07May)
9) 12May, 48.01 (Negated 13May)
10)21May, 44.24 (confirmed 24May)
11)25May, 44.14 Not Confrimed
12)27May, 45.30 (Negated)
13)02Jun, 45.67 (negated 04Jun)
14)10Jun, 44.51 (confirmed 11Jun)
15)11Jun, 44.93 (confirmed 14Jun)
16)15Jun, 46.13 (confirmed 16Jun)
Sell-Signals:
Sell-Signals have definitely dominated the scene since 11Mar and we suspect they'll continute to win out over buy-signals indefitely going forward?
NO, Date, Negate #
1) 11Mar, 48.30
2) 12Mar, 48.31
3) 16Mar, 48.50
4) 18Mar, 48.79
5) 22Mar, 48.88
6) 23Mar, 49.22
7) 25Mar, 48.91
8) 29Mar, 49.19 (Negated 13Apr with a close above!)
9) 14Apr, 50.91 (confirmed with an additional Sell-Signal 15Apr)
10)15Apr, 51.13 (confirmed on 16Apr)
11)27Apr, 50.34 (confirmed on 28Apr)
12)30Apr, 50.22 (confirmed on 03May)
13)04May, 49.40 (confirmed 05May)
14)07May, 46.32 (Negated 10May)
15)13May, 48.81 (confirmed 14May)
16)18May, 47.36 (confirmed 19May)
17)20May, 45.24 (confirmed 21May, negated 27May)
18)01Jun, 46.14 (negated 02Jun)
19)04Jun, 45.99
20)07Jun, 45.16 (confirmed 08Jun)
21)09Jun, 44.70 (negated 10Jun)
22)21Jun, 47.53 confirmed 22Jun)
23)22Jun, 47.16
Last but defintely NOT Least is the OEPM S/R lines of meaning!
53.35 20.00% R8
52.24 17.50% R7
51.13 15.00% R6
50.02 12.50% R5 (Serious resistance as of 30Apr)
48.91 10.00% R4 (violated 04May, look to the R3 for guidance now)
47.79 7.50% R3 (violated 14May, hasn't been seen since)
46.68 5.00% R2 (violated 18May on a close-ing basis and back-tested 19May)
45.57 2.50% R1 (violated 20May and NOW Serious resistance)
44.46 0.00% YTD OE Pivot (Once thought to be the FINAL Discount wave target, close at 44.35 on 20May and another violation will Open the FLOOD gates to start vilating the Support levels!!??)
43.35 -2.50% S1
42.24 -5.00% S2
41.13 -7.50% S3
40.01 -10.00% S4
38.90 -12.50% S5
37.79 -15.00% S6
36.68 -17.50% S7
35.57 -20.00% S8
