Tuesday, January 18, 2005 11:25:55 AM
.<font color=green size=2>THE LINEUP for expiration week
The pickings are rather slim as I think MLK holiday postponed many reports. None of my favorites is on this week, still I think I found a few that could be nice plays. Sad to see all of last season´s "buffet" reporting next week, with insane February premiums.
I have never listed so many III rated plays, but some of those might be a good play when they fulfill very specific requirements regarding strikes and premiums setup. So actually hard work this week, I will have to mellow down on my daytrading to keep track of all... Will only play small this week, opsex and medium quality of the lineup.
Reporting Tuesday after market close
CHKP III+
has done avg 2-3 pt moves on the report day, with tight strikes this might be a play IF premiums come down and the stock settles right between the 25-22.5 combo. ESTIMATES are .29 EPS on 141M revenue
JNPR III-
avg 1.5-2pt moves, definately too slow too straddle, but might set up to trade a slight ramp up intraday.
RMBS II - III
has done average 3pt moves over the last year, looking at the 2 year chart the stock once was in play, then cooled down in the past 6 months, but it seems like volatility is back with Playstation rumors and litigation lawsuit updates - factors that could cause volatility when adressed in the CC. Tight strikes, premiums are not cheap but playable for a risky trade, and definately for ramp up, imo. Would like the 22.5 - 20 combo blow .50 each side.
TSS II+
has done earnings moves between 2+ and 7pts, and has consistently moved on every report so far. Tight strikes, and premiums are cheap considering the history. STill high risk as this is way off-radar, and options are thinly traded. I like it for both ramp up and hold thru, 22.5 -22.5 is the play here imo, positions at .72 calls and .48 puts. Was nibbling on bid until someone stepped in outta nowhere and took out the offers, hoping to add some tuesday morning.
YHOO - ASKJ (?)
... as YAHOO is mostly too slow to play, I´d rather play ASKJ which moves big on sympathy/sector exspectations. Got upgraded last friday and ran, might pick up either straddle or strangle if the premiums offer a decent risk/reward profile for the trade.
others noteworthy: IBM PLT STX
Reporting Wednesday before market open
GM III-
this is definately not the perfect straddle play, so its a wildcard really. With tight strikes and average 2pt moves this is a play when the stock sets up just between two OTM strikes on tuesday, premiums around .10 or .15 make this interesting on a standard move, and sometimes she pulls a "big" 3+pt move as in October, then the cheapies might actually be a buck in the money. Super high risk for small money. They did guide for 2005 already last week, thus the decline, which might further reduce volatility.
Reporting Wednesday after market close
DOX III-
has done 2-3pts on reports, but wide strikes here above 25.00 which make it hard to play. Might be a 25-25 combo if premiums come down much more which I doubt.
CAI III+
old favorite back in the day, has become pretty expensive and harder to play. She moved 6 and 8 points on the past 2 reports, so the 60-60 combo around or under 1.00 for both might be a play. I wont play this OTM. Couldnt find reason for recent selloff.
IIVI III+
something from the wild off-radar section. The risk with this play is its inconsistency, has done 2 pts and 6 pts on reports and mostly does have a nice continuation move, however this week we only have 2 days to participate in any move. Stock is consolidating around 40 level, IF we can get entries for the 40-40 straddle around or below 1.00 for both sides, then this could be a nice play.
MACR III
This would be a nice play if we had 27.50 strikes, which I miss as on so many other plays lately. The wide OTM combo is too risky for me, but will work out on a monster move.
Others: QLGC, CREAF
Reporting Thursday before market open
AFCO II+
now this is one of the few plays which offer a good risk/reward ratio this week. She has moved 3-4pts on each report, consistently. Tight strikes and surprisingly cheap premiums make this very attractive for both the 20-20 straddle or the riskier 22.5-20 OTM combo. GET IN.
BEBE III
off radar play which has only moved on the past report, before it was quiet. Has semi-tight strikes due to 3-2 forward split, might set a trigger and watch premiums.
CHIC III+
might straddle that CHIC at 10.00 as the premiums are cheap, and hope she runs a little, lol. Note they have guided down for the quarter, now exspecting .07 - .11 so volatility might be reduced, however guidance for remaining 2005 might move her. Did same last quarter, warned & crashed, then up almost 2.00 on the announcement a month later. Risky risky :)
HDWR III
another inconsistent play, has moved 1pt - 6pt on earnings. A 30-30 straddle with premiums around .65 is a bet that it moves at least 1.30 either way. Normally a good stock for continuations, but we aint got time for that this week.
HZO III-
I would consider this a really good play IF she had 27.5 strikes - which she hasnt. I would also play a 30-30 straddle IF the premiums are reasonable. With the current setup I will most likey pass.
MRCY III-
good old Merci has the same problem as HZO, wide strikes for a $27 stock. Hardly playable, which is really sad. Hoping to play those 2 in future seasons when they trade below 25 and in the tight strike range again.
Reporting Thursday after market close - Expiration Day plays
CKFR II-
Good mover on earnings, likes to do 3 pts and sometimes more. However wide strikes wont help, need 35 straddle, the wide OTM combo is very high risk. Set price alerts for possible entries. Recent decline due to downgrade.
HTCH II - III
another one to straddle at 35-35 and taking advantage of the cheap premiums around .65 for both sides... this could be a decent trade. She moves mostly 2-3 points, sometimes bigger. Great play for continuation, however now we only have 1 day to play it.
KLAC III+
in play stock, mostly a rather slow mover, she does pull 2-4pt moves on the reports. Tight strikes make this playavle in general, could be a good ramp up trade, yet I wouldnt hold much or at all thru the report. Note: Next season, straddle KLAC on INTC report.
SYNA III+
IPod supplier, nice consistency of earnings moves, around 3-4pts mostly. Wide strikes unfortunately, and premiums not really cheap. One to set price alerts and re-evaluate premiums later this week.
Others: ACS TRID, ELY (trigger for straddle if premiums lower)
Reporting Friday before market open - Expiration Day plays
BGG II-
another wildcard play like GM, but better setup here imo. Tight strikes for an expensive stock, and cheap premiums. Does standard 2pt moves, but has gained volatility in the past two quarters. Something very risky for small small money, but it does have reward potential as well when and if there is anything that the market didnt exspect. An early entry should let us participate in any possible move into the report, imo.
And before anybody comes whining about a "bust" again, read AND understand this:
NOTE: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities and their derivative options. All January options will expire at the Close of Market on Friday, January 21. All options out of the money will be totally worthless at that time. This post only contains my opinion on my possible trades which I chose to share in public. Before making an investment decision contact your professional advisor.
CHARTS FOR TUESDAY A/H and WEDNESDAY B/O
CHARTS FOR WEDNESDAY A/H and THURSDAY B/O
CHARTS FOR THURSDAY A/H and FRIDAY B/O
>
The pickings are rather slim as I think MLK holiday postponed many reports. None of my favorites is on this week, still I think I found a few that could be nice plays. Sad to see all of last season´s "buffet" reporting next week, with insane February premiums.
I have never listed so many III rated plays, but some of those might be a good play when they fulfill very specific requirements regarding strikes and premiums setup. So actually hard work this week, I will have to mellow down on my daytrading to keep track of all... Will only play small this week, opsex and medium quality of the lineup.
Reporting Tuesday after market close
CHKP III+
has done avg 2-3 pt moves on the report day, with tight strikes this might be a play IF premiums come down and the stock settles right between the 25-22.5 combo. ESTIMATES are .29 EPS on 141M revenue
JNPR III-
avg 1.5-2pt moves, definately too slow too straddle, but might set up to trade a slight ramp up intraday.
RMBS II - III
has done average 3pt moves over the last year, looking at the 2 year chart the stock once was in play, then cooled down in the past 6 months, but it seems like volatility is back with Playstation rumors and litigation lawsuit updates - factors that could cause volatility when adressed in the CC. Tight strikes, premiums are not cheap but playable for a risky trade, and definately for ramp up, imo. Would like the 22.5 - 20 combo blow .50 each side.
TSS II+
has done earnings moves between 2+ and 7pts, and has consistently moved on every report so far. Tight strikes, and premiums are cheap considering the history. STill high risk as this is way off-radar, and options are thinly traded. I like it for both ramp up and hold thru, 22.5 -22.5 is the play here imo, positions at .72 calls and .48 puts. Was nibbling on bid until someone stepped in outta nowhere and took out the offers, hoping to add some tuesday morning.
YHOO - ASKJ (?)
... as YAHOO is mostly too slow to play, I´d rather play ASKJ which moves big on sympathy/sector exspectations. Got upgraded last friday and ran, might pick up either straddle or strangle if the premiums offer a decent risk/reward profile for the trade.
others noteworthy: IBM PLT STX
Reporting Wednesday before market open
GM III-
this is definately not the perfect straddle play, so its a wildcard really. With tight strikes and average 2pt moves this is a play when the stock sets up just between two OTM strikes on tuesday, premiums around .10 or .15 make this interesting on a standard move, and sometimes she pulls a "big" 3+pt move as in October, then the cheapies might actually be a buck in the money. Super high risk for small money. They did guide for 2005 already last week, thus the decline, which might further reduce volatility.
Reporting Wednesday after market close
DOX III-
has done 2-3pts on reports, but wide strikes here above 25.00 which make it hard to play. Might be a 25-25 combo if premiums come down much more which I doubt.
CAI III+
old favorite back in the day, has become pretty expensive and harder to play. She moved 6 and 8 points on the past 2 reports, so the 60-60 combo around or under 1.00 for both might be a play. I wont play this OTM. Couldnt find reason for recent selloff.
IIVI III+
something from the wild off-radar section. The risk with this play is its inconsistency, has done 2 pts and 6 pts on reports and mostly does have a nice continuation move, however this week we only have 2 days to participate in any move. Stock is consolidating around 40 level, IF we can get entries for the 40-40 straddle around or below 1.00 for both sides, then this could be a nice play.
MACR III
This would be a nice play if we had 27.50 strikes, which I miss as on so many other plays lately. The wide OTM combo is too risky for me, but will work out on a monster move.
Others: QLGC, CREAF
Reporting Thursday before market open
AFCO II+
now this is one of the few plays which offer a good risk/reward ratio this week. She has moved 3-4pts on each report, consistently. Tight strikes and surprisingly cheap premiums make this very attractive for both the 20-20 straddle or the riskier 22.5-20 OTM combo. GET IN.
BEBE III
off radar play which has only moved on the past report, before it was quiet. Has semi-tight strikes due to 3-2 forward split, might set a trigger and watch premiums.
CHIC III+
might straddle that CHIC at 10.00 as the premiums are cheap, and hope she runs a little, lol. Note they have guided down for the quarter, now exspecting .07 - .11 so volatility might be reduced, however guidance for remaining 2005 might move her. Did same last quarter, warned & crashed, then up almost 2.00 on the announcement a month later. Risky risky :)
HDWR III
another inconsistent play, has moved 1pt - 6pt on earnings. A 30-30 straddle with premiums around .65 is a bet that it moves at least 1.30 either way. Normally a good stock for continuations, but we aint got time for that this week.
HZO III-
I would consider this a really good play IF she had 27.5 strikes - which she hasnt. I would also play a 30-30 straddle IF the premiums are reasonable. With the current setup I will most likey pass.
MRCY III-
good old Merci has the same problem as HZO, wide strikes for a $27 stock. Hardly playable, which is really sad. Hoping to play those 2 in future seasons when they trade below 25 and in the tight strike range again.
Reporting Thursday after market close - Expiration Day plays
CKFR II-
Good mover on earnings, likes to do 3 pts and sometimes more. However wide strikes wont help, need 35 straddle, the wide OTM combo is very high risk. Set price alerts for possible entries. Recent decline due to downgrade.
HTCH II - III
another one to straddle at 35-35 and taking advantage of the cheap premiums around .65 for both sides... this could be a decent trade. She moves mostly 2-3 points, sometimes bigger. Great play for continuation, however now we only have 1 day to play it.
KLAC III+
in play stock, mostly a rather slow mover, she does pull 2-4pt moves on the reports. Tight strikes make this playavle in general, could be a good ramp up trade, yet I wouldnt hold much or at all thru the report. Note: Next season, straddle KLAC on INTC report.
SYNA III+
IPod supplier, nice consistency of earnings moves, around 3-4pts mostly. Wide strikes unfortunately, and premiums not really cheap. One to set price alerts and re-evaluate premiums later this week.
Others: ACS TRID, ELY (trigger for straddle if premiums lower)
Reporting Friday before market open - Expiration Day plays
BGG II-
another wildcard play like GM, but better setup here imo. Tight strikes for an expensive stock, and cheap premiums. Does standard 2pt moves, but has gained volatility in the past two quarters. Something very risky for small small money, but it does have reward potential as well when and if there is anything that the market didnt exspect. An early entry should let us participate in any possible move into the report, imo.
And before anybody comes whining about a "bust" again, read AND understand this:
NOTE: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities and their derivative options. All January options will expire at the Close of Market on Friday, January 21. All options out of the money will be totally worthless at that time. This post only contains my opinion on my possible trades which I chose to share in public. Before making an investment decision contact your professional advisor.
CHARTS FOR TUESDAY A/H and WEDNESDAY B/O
CHARTS FOR WEDNESDAY A/H and THURSDAY B/O
CHARTS FOR THURSDAY A/H and FRIDAY B/O
~DC~
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
