Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:346249, 01/01/06

01/09: (343020) (*COMMENT*)
Look at mutual fund flows for this time of year last year to current numbers. Does not bode well for equities. makes you wonder what supported prices at the end of the year. One would think that with the run we had for November and December that January flows would be much higher.

I would also question the high volume that we saw the last few months. It does appear that it came from mutual fund inflows. Program trading maybe??

http://www.geocities.com/dollarbear2k3/FUND_FLOWS_CHARTS/fund.flows2_24836_image004.gif
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Joe, I am not sure about your conclusion, fund flow out of these funds at local lows, look last August for instance, or March 2003, on the other hand, last january as we were going down into the spring lows, they had huge inflows. Should not that be a contrarian indicator?


01/10: (343234) (*COMMENT*)
How can you have these massive fund inflows and yet report a miniscule US savings rate? I wonder if there is some problem with measuring the savings rate.
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I think that saving rates does not include 401k, various IRA, SEP etc. Note that last month debt declined markedly, paying debt down is not calculated as saving rate either. I am not sure how the saving rate data is calculated. Maybe the difference between income (real rather than gross including retirement contributions) and consumer expenditures?


01/15: (346208) (*COMMENT*)
The Nassacres of 2001, 2002, 2003 and this year, all had sub .4 EPC preceding them by few days. Maybe this is too strong of a string?

maybe rising interest rates and widening credit spreads will do it?

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=20953297
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I doubts the rates are at a pain point, though the flat yield curve may indicate a future recession, especially if it get inverted (I doubt that will happen, very rare, leading into the 82 bottom, we had, if memory serves, an inversion where short term rates where higher than longterm rates).