ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:343026, 01/09/05
01/03: (340415) (*COMMENT*)
zeev, does today's action give you pause in your thoughts about a rally?
this from streetinsight:
Now this isn't the way the bulls want to start a new year. After a hard reversal of this morning's promising open, the market appears to be on a rather slippery slope despite big losses in energy futures. The market's swoon feels worse than the large-cap indices suggest, and that's because breadth is pretty bad.
I'm sure that seasonal factors such as the "January Effect" are at work today, but some very sobering data crossed my desk earlier this morning, and I'm sure it's taking a toll on investors' psyche.
Over the past six years, there has been incredible downward pressure on the Nasdaq in the January to February period. From the highs of January to the lows of February, the Nasdaq has doled out double-digit losses in all but one of the last six years -- and in that year the decline approached 10%.
Thanks to the good people at CS First Boston, here is
the data:
# 1999: -12.6%;
# 2000: -9.5%;
# 2001: -32.6%;
# 2002: -22.5%;
# 2003: -15.3%; and
# 2004: -12.0%.
Ouch.
Of course, these were not normal years, with the unwinding of the bubble taking a considerable toll. In addition, the data is also representative of a strong January start in most of these years. Nevertheless, the data is pretty scary.
(*END*)
No, I still expect a high later this month, I think we had a lot of delayed profit taking to move taxable profits into 2005... The low trin in boith the NYSE and Naz most of the day indicates, IMTO, some stealth buying into this swoon.
01/04: (340664) (*COMMENT*)
Naz closes green. It hasn't closed red first 2 days in Jan since 1991... THAT'S 14 YEARS!!!!!! History is on my side.<g>
(*END*)
Statistics would say, it is about time to have another event of two first red days in January (g). By the way, since my cash has dropped under 25%, I have to done minor horns here and remove the neutral stance. No choice. No big bull mind you, only some 100 to 150 Naz points left.
01/04: (340752) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev,the NDX hasn't been this oversold since November of 2003. 2003!!! The only worst reading is September of 2002. BUY.BUY.BUY.BUY.
(*END*)
Hey I am buying, my cash dropped under 20%, how bullish can I be? And with the buy of IMOS here at $6.05 (one of Jim's favorites), cash dropped to 15%...I trust Wecus notes the little horns on my forehead here at Naz 2123...well above where I was planning to put them back on (2050 or so...) and ZBRA is slowly approaching my bid as well.
01/04: (341050) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev: Market doesn't look like simply deferred taxable gain sale. The silver lining is that it should wash out the excess and set the stage for stronger rally later. Agree?
(*END*)
I think we should rally before the end of the week, probably by lunch tomorrow. Note the lack of expansion in new lows. However, the fact that todays declined happened with something close to a record (at least trailing 12 months) volume, is a shot over the bow of this market indicating to me that my assumption of a coming Nassacre sometime late this months or next month is probably correct, the next move up should probably be used to get out. The lack of put buying today is puzzling and not very positive.
01/04: (341076) (*COMMENT*)
Break of Aug 2004 Up Channel [Suppressed Chart Link]
(*END*)
You may want to update cash, went out at 10% only cash and back in bullish mode with a 150 to 200 Naz points advance target, even if we breach 2100 temporarily in the next few days.
01/05: (341181) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, In my opinion the market has changed much in the last few years and therefor a put little thought into past occurances.
In past the market represented the collective psychological sentiment of broad range of players. Now the market has been taken over much by a small set of program traders. I would be weary of past performance indicating likely future results. We have a whole new market here from what we saw in the past before 2002. JMO.
(*END*)
No disagreement, but the problem is that the only thing my model can look at is past performance, and hope the changes are gradual enough to be reflected in more recent market behavior
01/05: (341594) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev..I know you are fully loaded, but the mkt looks dead..ending at LOD today. What is the catalyst in your opinion that will turn this thing around?
(*END*)
The catalyst is the market itself, it has created a very strong oversold condition here in the last three days. The market may use news from Las Vegas, or from AEOS fantastic showing, but that would be just an excuse.
01/05: (341606) (*COMMENT*)
A thought has been nagging me today....
Could the Nassacre have already begun?
(*END*)
I doubt so...but everything is possible... Note that we never got an EPC excursion under .4, it is rare for a nassacre to start before that, usually, we get a week or two of topping after such an excursion (when other parameters are in place for a nassacre).
01/07: (342725) (*COMMENT*)
You're not alone. I'm ready for a turn up.
(*END*)
5 down days in a row early January, like 1991, unusual.
01/07: (342824) (*COMMENT*)
One time hot flyer NVEC, and you made good moola trading this one(g) currently hitting 52 week lows in the afterhours. Any interest in it at this time?
(*END*)
Nope. My NEM however filled just before the close at $41.39. That leaves me at 12% cash, very tight, and that elusive rally better materialize soon.
01/07: (342826) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, it was a tough week to be long. I felt the sting today, but had a good week being short early on. What is your near term outlook now. TIA.
(*END*)
Not changed. Early in December I expected a swoon to the 2040-50 to occur before Christmas it seems to be materializing now (and since we got higher than I expected prior to that, the depth of the swoon may not be that deep). The MSFT bolus of liquidity must have delayed that denouement. From that level I still expect another run to 2275 or so.
01/07: (342834) (*COMMENT*)
As I recall you were expecting a swoon of 100 points in early December. Today's low is a little more than that from Monday's high. Maybe today was the low?
(*END*)
Maybe, though I would not be surprised if we try for a deeper oversold first. The SMH, however, is showing signs of turning, bouncing from $31. The BBH is also showing some good strength. So yes maybe we get some relief next week.
I fear the weekend editorials will be full of the January postulate (as the first week of January goes, goes January and as January goes goes the year).
01/09: (343000) (*COMMENT*)
(Part 1)
A pretty good rally is in progress near the close of trading in Tel Aviv, maybe a precursors of a slightly better week ahead, or just a reflection on the smoothness of the elections next door??
(Part 2)
Hi Zeev: I really don't know, but there are a few trades possible tomorrow; futures, ER2's may be a buy on a soft ooening, the same for the Ym's, Russel 2000's. ANTP, GERN, INMD, PRTL and ZOLT may be day-tradable. But I'm still looking. Look, find, prepare, cull 'em down to a manageable few, for me, and then trade.
(*END*)
Make sense, but what if we gap?
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