Buff, revenue growth IS a measure of progress.
and the scope and pace of revenue growth IS ONLY a matter of conjecture for a startup company.
Let's immediately dispense with the 'startup' discussion, and the 16 or so years it has been in that mode, okay?
Conjecture will get you nothing. The guesses of a dozen or so posters, all well meaning (well, mostly so) only gives you, the reader, a sense of how THEY FEEL about the company.
The level of accuracy of their 'guesses' is not measurable!
Tell me the value of their contracts.
The best we've got is:
o 340K deferred over an unknown number of months/quarters,
o 80k for DoD, again, over an unknown number of months/quarters,
o an Intel deal that relies on 1) the number of boards shipped (Intel won't reveal that number -- I've tried) and a per board value that varies by an order of magnitude (I've heard both $0.10 and $1),
o an NSM deal that is similar to the Intel deal -- varies be units shipped and by that $ per unit. NOBODY THAT I KNOW HAS A HANDLE ON THESE NUMBERS
o Dell's version of Wave software that Envoy is selling that Wave will get somewhere between $5 and $15 per unit. But Dell hasn't shown any visibility bout how many THEY are delivering.
o some other things that I can't recall at this moment (and there are others) that are real, but, at this time, not quantifiable
All in all, it's good that this many different avenues are available, but until Wave publishes a 10-Q/10-K that breaks down revenue streams, and there is a fairly accurate forecast of deployment out there (Wave deployment, not TPM deployment)
IT'S ALL GUESSWORK
I'm being even handed. Have fun with your numbers, but do me a favor. KEEP TRACK OF WHAT IS FORECAST AGAINST ACTUALS.
IF there was a rational for these numbers (as opposed to pulling them out of the air) there could even be a quarterly report of forecast v/s actual variances, with some discussion on why the numbers were higher/lower.
But, for now, the numbers are merely a gauge of the optimism/pessimism of the posters.
Cheers!
"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. - Carl Sagan
